OCA's Michael Kelsey Talks State and Federal Issues the Cattle Industry is Tracking

As the 2015 Oklahoma legislative session progresses, Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association Executive Vice President Michael Kelsey said state senators and representatives are focusing more and more of their time on the shortfall in the state budget- and issues that might take even small amounts of additional resources to be successful are having a hard time gaining traction. Kelsey says that while OCA has some had some great momentum this session, it's difficult to be effective if you are trying to swim against strong current that is the need to reduce state spending..


Apparently, the cattle organization's push to increase penalties and prison terms for cattle thieves has run into the budgetary tide. "Sometimes it's just best to say 'ok, we're going to take a time out', kind of gather ourselves up and build on our momentum we have next year," Kelsey said. Because of concerns by some lawmakers that upping the discretionary power for judges to give longer prison sentences for hard core cattle rustlers will add to the prison population that has been called out of control by the Governor- the OCA Executive says the organization is going to take the rest of this year's legislative session to educate lawmakers about this cattle industry problem- and push for legislative action in 2016.

Beyond this priority for the organization- we also talked "Right to Farm," Dietary Guidelines and Section 179 in the federal tax code with Kelsey.  Click here to listen to our visit as well as to read more of some of the highlights of Michael's comments.

 

Kelsey will be joining me for the weekly "In the Field" report on KWTV News 9 in the Oklahoma City market on Tomorrow morning at 6:40 a.m.  

Leffler Finds USDA Reports Lack Bullish News to Support Higher Prices

Minor adjustments were made to the U.S. and global ending stocks estimates for wheat, corn and soybeans. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the U.S. ending stocks report and the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities said the reports were mostly neutral and lacked anything bullish to support commodity prices. 


In the U.S. ending stocks report, Leffler said it was bullish for wheat, corn and soybeans. U.S. corn ending stocks came in at 1.827 billion bushels. This was less than trade expectations, but an increase over last month by 50 million bushels. U.S. soybean ending stocks came in at 370 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from the March report. U.S. wheat ending stock were pegged at 684 million bushels was down seven million bushels from last month. The U.S. milo ending stocks came in 18 million bushels. Leffler said U.S. milo exports are up over 65 percent over a year ago.


In the WASDE report, Leffler said the global production and stocks numbers were adjusted slightly. In looking at global wheat production, he said USDA increased the European Union, Former Soviet Union and Russia wheat production numbers. Leffler said world wheat stocks were lowered by 500,000 metric ton to 197.21. 

 

Click here to read more about the global corn and soybean production/ending stocks numbers or to listen to Leslie Smith's conversation with Tom Leffler.  

Anderson Breaks Down USDA Report and Price Outlook

Two factors are directing the commodity market outlook. On this weekend's edition of SUNUP, Oklahoma State University Crop Marketing Specialist Dr. Kim Anderson said those factors are the weather and the latest reports out from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. SUNUP host Lyndall Stout interviews Anderson about this factors. 


In watching the July Kansas Wheat contract, Anderson said that contract has lost more than 30 cents in the last week. He attributes the loss to weather forecasts that are predicting rain for this weekend into next week. In looking at the Oklahoma wheat crop, USDA reports the state's crop is in better shape than a year ago. In talking with growers, Anderson isn't so sure. While the crop may be better this year southwest, he is concerned about the crop in north central Oklahoma.


"I think some of that wheat has been hurt and I don't know if it's going to recover with this weather," Anderson said. "I don't think that's in the market yet."


On Thursday, USDA released the U.S. ending stocks and World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimate reports. In reviewing these reports, Anderson called it a whole lot of 'nothing' as most of the numbers came in close to trade expectations. Anderson said the U.S. wheat ending stocks were pegged at 684 million bushels. The pre-report trade estimate average was 692 million bushels. USDA's March ending stocks estimate was 691 million bushels.    He said there was no market reaction, as to be expected.


Anderson also address the U.S. corn ending stocks estimate and the price outlook.  Click here to hear the interview and also to see the full lineup for this weekend's program.

USDA Invests in Critical Dam Rehabilitation, Including 18 Projects in Oklahoma

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack Thursday announced $73 million to be invested this year to rehabilitate and assess dams across the nation to ensure this critical infrastructure is protecting Americans from harm, securing public health and expanding water supplies in drought affected areas. About 150 projects and assessments in 23 states will be funded.


"Millions of people depend on watersheds and dams for protection from floods and to provide safe drinking water. With a changing and shifting climate, dams are also vital to holding stores of water for use during drought," Secretary Vilsack said. "By investing in this critical infrastructure, we are helping to ensure a safe, resilient environment for agricultural producers and residents of rural America."


Oklahoma will receive $960,000 of funding for 18 dam projects. This includes funding for ten assessments, six design and two construction projects. Funding has been allocated for Rock Creek, Upper Black Bear, Upper Elk Creek, Fourche Maline, Quapaw, Barnitz, Brushy Peaceable, Cotton Coon Mission, Fitzgerald Soldier, Rock, Cow, Peavine, Big Wewoka, Otter and Whiteshield. Click here for more specific details on each project.   


Last year, NRCS made changes to the watershed rehabilitation program to allow for projects that also help increase water supply.  Click here to read more about watershed projects.  

Peel Recommends Producers Make Their Strategic Plan for Rest of Decade

Drought remains as the "wild card" for the cattle market outlook- especially here in the south central part of the US. Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel said a lot will depend on which sector a producer is involved in and continued process of drought recovery.


"You want to take advantage of these markets as the best you can, but you have to work with your forage resources," Peel said. "Other folks, I think are being much more aggressive in general. Particularly the cow-calf sector, definitely sitting in the driver's seat now. We don't have enough cattle and the market is increasingly telling them to do that." 


Peel recommends cow-calf producers make their expectations for the next three to five years. He said producers need to ask themselves if they think cattle prices will remain strong for several more years and can justify paying these high costs for breeding animals.   If you don't believe that, he said producers need to determine their plan to take advantage of these high prices.


As herd rebuilding is underway, Peel said he thinks the ideal U.S. beef cow herd is above 32 million head. Currently the U.S. has around 29 million head. He thinks more drought recovery will be needed and it will most of the decade to reach that target goal.   Peel said right now there are more factors that can slow down herd rebuilding and not much can help speed up the process. He expects herd rebuilding to take at least another three to five years.    

I featured Peel on the Beef Buzz feature. Click or tap here to listen to today's Beef Buzz. 

Award winning broadcast journalist Jerry Bohnen has spent years learning and understanding how to cover the energy business here in the southern plains- Click here to subscribe to his daily update of top Energy News.

OSU Wheat Pathologist Bob Hunger Says Wheat Crop Needs Moisture to Finish

Bob Hunger, Extension Wheat Pathologist in the Department of Entomology & Plant Pathology at Oklahoma State University released the following Wheat Disease Report on Thursday, April 9, 2015.


"Oklahoma: On April 6, I traveled a route from Clinton (85 miles west of OKC) in west central Oklahoma going northeast through Custer County to Kingfisher (40 miles northwest of OKC) and then to Marshall (35 miles west of Stillwater). Although there was some good wheat on this route (e.g. the variety trials at Kingfisher and Marshall), it is posed to decline quickly unless rain is received. Most of the wheat I looked at in Custer County northeast of Clinton was small and fields were terribly dry. Wheat in this area seemed to be at GS 6-7 and I'm guessing was planted quite late due to the dry fall. The most common problem I saw were greenbug, especially in Custer County. However, there were many mummies present indicating the population should be crashing shortly. I also saw some stripe rust but only an infection here and there. Around the variety trial at Kingfisher, wheat was mostly around GS 9 and I saw no aphids or disease. At Marshall, wheat was at GS 8 and there was some stripe rust but at a low incidence.


"On April 7, I traveled to Frederick in south central OK looking at wheat along the way. At a variety demo 20 miles west of OKC right at I-40, I found the wheat at GS 8 with just a little touch here and there of stripe rust. Soil moisture here looked good; this area must have caught a decent rain in the last week or so. The same could be said at another variety demo straight south about 15 miles south at Minco. Here the wheat in the field surrounding the demo was at GS 9, there was good soil wetness, and the wheat looked good. I did not see any rusts or powdery mildew, but there were occasional BYD spots. Further southwest near Apache (30 miles north of Lawton) wheat was at GS 9-10 and looked very good in the variety trial as well as in fields. However, some leaves were beginning to roll and the need for moisture to continue the crop was evident. I didn't see any aphids or diseases in wheat west of Apache, but I the variety trial just south of Apache I found some stripe rust and greenbug; both at a very low incidence."


Click here to read more about the Oklahoma and Texas wheat crop- courtesy of Dr. Bob Hunger.   

Dr. Hunger was the not the only person eyeballing the Oklahoma wheat crop in the last couple of days- Dr. Jeff Edwards traveled northwest- northcentral Oklahoma at about the same time- and worries about what he is seeing- his firsthand account is available here.  

This N That- COME ON RAIN; Grass to Grid on Saturday and Black Sunday To Be Remembered Next Week 

There is a pretty good chance of rain rolling in across a lot of Oklahoma this weekend and early into next week- however the rainfall amounts seem to be slipping a bit in the models that are available this morning- we had seen a map put out by the Norman National Weather Service map from last night that showed potential rainfall of two inches in places like Altus and Lawton- this morning- the potential rainfall map seen here- is predicting just an inch of rainfall through Wednesday morning.  

By the way- the Amarillo office is the one that handles the Panhandle predictions- they show a forty to fifty percent chance of rain this weekend for the Oklahoma Panhandle- with some storms possibly severe.

Prayers are in order- let's all pray that these rainfall totals are reached and then some!

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The 2015 edition of the Grass to Grid Bull Sale happens tomorrow at 12:30 PM- being put on by the Griswold Cattle Company- the sale to be held in Follett, Texas.   

Featured will be 200 bulls- details are available here. 

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This coming Tuesday- there will be a remembrance of Black Sunday- April 14, 1935- the day that HUGE dirt storms overwhelmed much of the southern Great Plains- with ground zero stretching from the Oklahoma Panhandle south down into the Texas Panhandle and western parts of the main body of our state. This will be the 80th anniversary of Black Sunday.  

Ernest Herald recalls a rabbit hunt cut short by stinging gales of dust, forcing him to lay face down in a field until the storm passed. Betty Ann Lam's family was driving to church when they saw the black dust cloud chasing them down the highway. Pauline Hodges remembers her father's words: "the worst part about the Dust Bowl, is that I helped cause it." He was a farmer from the Panhandle.

Thirty to fifty survivors of that Sunday will be at the Oklahoma State Capitol on Tuesday and will be sharing their stories- we will be there and we will be looking back as well as looking ahead to consider how we make sure Black Sunday is never repeated.