Analysts are calling the August WASDE and Crop Production reports "shocking" and the grain and oilseed markets responded with a limit down move.  If realized, USDA is forecasting corn production to be the third highest on record and the second largest U.S. soybean production on record.

The winter wheat production estimate was lowered by one percent from the July forecast. Nationally, sorghum production is forecast to be up 32 percent from last year, while cotton production is forecast to be down 20 percent.

After the report was released midday Wednesday-  the news turned grain prices sharply lower. Justin Lewis of KIS Futures said the report offered several big surprises. Trade estimates predicted the average corn yield would drop to 164.5 bushels an acre and USDA came out with 168.8 bpa. Lewis said that was four bushels an acre above the trade estimate and bigger than highest estimate. A similar scenario took place for soybeans, as USDA increased soybean production to 46.9 bpa. Lewis said that was higher than the average trade guess of 44.7 bpa.


"That was an extremely big surprise," Lewis said. "...Everybody was looking for a decrease and the fact that it was increased, was a big surprise."


The Oklahoma Crop Numbers were a mixed bag- USDA further reduced the size of the Oklahoma hard red winter wheat crop by another four million bushels compared to the July estimate- now predicting the Oklahoma crop came in at 92.5 million bushels.  


At the same time- the 2015 Oklahoma Cotton crop is predicted to be a lot bigger than last year's crop- with Uncle Sam predicting a huge jump in number of pounds of lint per acre for Oklahoma this year versus last- 166 pounds more for each acre than a year ago gives us a yield of 781 pounds per acre and a total of 350,000 bales, up 30% from 2014. 


Grain sorghum acres in Oklahoma really jumped this growing season- up 120,000 acres from a year ago to 430,000 acres. USDA expects a slight increase in the yield per acre to 59 bushels and a 46% increase in total production to 25.37 million bushels.


Click here to review the Oklahoma and Texas Crop Production highlights in a Southern Region Crop Summary released yesterday after the national USDA report came out.
 

While the major focus of the monthly WASDE report is usually on the grain and oilseed numbers- the livestock portion of the August 2015 report showed falling livestock prices for cattle, hogs and chicken. Pork production is expected to remain the same while beef and broiler production is expected to be smaller- even in the face of falling prices.

For the cattle industry- the numbers are sobering. Beef production for 2015 and 2016 is lowered due to a combination of slower marketings of fed cattle and reduced cow slaughter.

The beef export forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are lowered from last month on the relative strength of the dollar and expectations of weak demand. Beef imports are raised on strength in demand for processing-grade beef.

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month on weaker demand. Steer prices in 2015 are now expected to average $154 to $158 per hundredweight in 2015, down from $158 to $162 forecast last month. Steer prices in 2016 are now expected to average $150 to $162, down from $155 to $167 forecast last month.

Click here for more- including details of the falling hog and broiler prices.

A series of maps released Wednesday by the American Farm Bureau Federation show how the Environmental Protection Agency will radically expand its jurisdiction over land use if its controversial Waters of the United States rule takes effect as expected Aug. 28. That expansion comes even as major parts of the rule remain largely incomprehensible to experts and laypeople, alike.


The maps, prepared by Geosyntec Consulting, show the dramatic expansion of EPA's regulatory reach, stretching across wide swaths of land in Pennsylvania, Virginia and Montana. In Pennsylvania, for example, 99 percent of the state's total acreage is subject to EPA scrutiny. Landowners have no reliable way to know which of the water and land within that area will be regulated, yet they must still conform their activities to the new law.


"Farmers face enforcement action and severe penalties under EPA's new rule for using the same safe, scientifically sound and federally approved crop protection tools they've used for years," AFBF President Bob Stallman said. "This rule creates a new set of tools for harassing farmers in court, and does it all with language that is disturbingly vague and subject to abuse by future regulators. It's worth saying again: The EPA needs to withdraw this rule and start over."

A farmers and ranchers guide to preparing for the new WOTUS rule and maps prepared to date can be found by clicking here:

The Division of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources at Oklahoma State University recently selected Distinguished Alumni and DASNR Champions award winners.


The division's reputation and influence depends greatly upon the achievements and excellence of its alumni, as well as other leaders who are not alums of the college, but contribute to its mission.


Recognized as 2015 Distinguished Alumni of the College of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources are Minnie Lou Bradley, James Kennamer and Bob Westerman.

The 2015 DASNR Champions are Linda Cline, Rita Sparks and John Williams.

"These individuals are examples of sustained excellence in their industries and are testaments to the impact our graduates and friends have in their career fields and in their communities," said Tom Coon, vice president, dean and director of DASNR. "It is a pleasure to look forward to celebrating the mark these alumni and champions make to better our university, the state and beyond."

Click here to read more about these OSU honorees.

Herd expansion is aggressively underway in the U.S. The midyear report released recently by the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed indications that the nation's beef cattle producers continue to rebuild the U.S. beef cowherd. The report showed cattle numbers are above 30 million beef cows. Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) Director Jim Robb said the aggressive herd rebuilding continues, especially in the Southern Great Plains. He said LMIC members across the U.S. have seen herd expansion due to economics and to the improved grass conditions in nearly every state. He said producers are growing the herd, but the rate of expansion will begin to taper off.


"We get a pretty big kick in the first couple of years of this herd growth, because we are really transitioning away from beef cow slaughter and that's a short term thing, you don't keep pulling down beef cow slaughter," Robb said. "So as we look at 2016 and beyond, the fundamental herd growth will depend more and more on heifer hold back and that will be the transition we start to make in 2016."


The number of cattle needed in the U.S. beef cow herd will depend on the export markets.  I caught up with Jim Robb at the Southern Plains Beef Symposium held Saturday in Ardmore, Oklahoma. Click or tap here to listen to this Beef Buzz feature.

We also have our complete conversation with Jim posted as a Ag Perspectives Podcast- you can listen by clicking here.

The Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry (ODAFF) hosted a public hearing Tuesday to gather comments on its proposed pollinator plan. About 80 people gathered for the meeting at Langston University's campus in Oklahoma City.


The ODAFF has on their website a page dedicated to bees and pollinators- it's available here.


ODAFF announced that efforts to continue to gain input on the proposed pollinator plan will continue through regional public hearings. Those meetings are tentatively scheduled for: 1 p.m., Aug. 26 at the Garfield County OSU Extension Center, 316 E. Oxford in Enid; 1 p.m., Sept. 2 at the Great Plains Technology Center, Building 600, Rooms 655 and 656, 4500 W. Lee Blvd. in Lawton; tentatively scheduled for 1p.m., Sept. 9 at the Tulsa Community College Northeast Campus, in the large auditorium, #1470, 3727 E. Apache St., in Tulsa; and 1 p.m., Sept. 23 at the Kiamichi Technology Center, North Seminar Room, 107 S. 15th St., Hugo.

Click here to read more about Tuesday's public hearing.

The federal government and the mainstream media missed a huge opportunity last weekend by ignoring the tenth anniversary of the Renewable Fuels Standard, which has proven to be one of the most successful government energy initiatives ever.


"It is very curious that some vocal audiences known for touting job creation, a stronger domestic economy, and reduced air and water pollution were largely mute on this significant occasion," said Chip Bowling, NCGA president and a farmer from Maryland. "It is pretty hard to miss the irony of this anniversary-related RFS assessment hitting while the Environmental Protection Agency is weakening the successful legislation."


The performance of the RFS has been nothing short of spectacular. It has changed the national energy landscape. Last year alone, the 13.4 billion gallons of ethanol we blended with gasoline reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 38 million metric tons. That's equivalent to taking 8 million cars off our roads.


An analysis prepared by the Renewable Fuels Association shows that, over the last 10 years, the Renewable Fuel Standard fulfilled its primary goal, which was to decrease our reliance on foreign sources of energy and rely more heavily on an "all of the above" approach to domestic, renewable sources. Additionally, consumers have benefited from more choices at the pump and lower gas prices.  Click here to read more.