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Veterans Day- Markets Stay Open- Banks and Uncle Sam Take the Day Off

 

Equity markets and our ag futures are open today as the Federal Government and Banks are on holiday in honor of Veterans Day.

Veterans Day is not to be confused with Memorial Day; Veterans Day celebrates the service of all U.S. military veterans, while Memorial Day is a day of remembering the men and women who gave their lives and those who perished while in service.

The origin of Veterans Day stretches back to World War I- It coincides with other holidays including Armistice Day and Remembrance Day, which are celebrated in other parts of the world and also mark the anniversary of the end of World War I (major hostilities of World War I were formally ended at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918, when the Armistice with Germany went into effect). The United States also originally observed Armistice Day; it then evolved into the current Veterans Day holiday in 1954.

Simply put- on this Veterans Day- if you have been in the military or currently are serving- THANK YOU for your service.

It's your sacrifice that allows us to live in the land of free and the home of the brave.

God Bless Our Veterans!

USDA Boosts Corn and Soybean Production Estimates, Markets Slide Lower 

 

Traders were looking for higher numbers in the latest crop production reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, but Tuesday's reports exceeded expectations. Market Analyst Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities said there was nothing price friendly in the U.S. Crop Production or World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) reports. In response, the futures market made new contract lows in corn, soybeans and Kansas City wheat.


U.S. corn production was forecast at 13.7 billion bushels, up less than one percent from the October forecast, but down four percent from last year's record production. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields were expected to average 169.3 bushels per acre, up 1.3 bushels from the October forecast but 1.7 bushels below the 2014 average. If realized, this will be the second highest yield and third largest production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 80.7 million acres, unchanged from the October forecast but down three percent from 2014. Leffler said corn saw export sales lowered by 50 million bushels, feed and residual usage increased by 25 million bushels and ethanol usage dropped by 75 million bushels. He said this caused the nation's corn ending stocks to come in at 1.76 billion bushels. That was an increase of 199 million bushels over last month.


The U.S. has set a new record for soybean production and yield, beating out last year's crop. USDA estimated the nation's soybean production at a record 3.98 billion bushels, up two percent from October and up one percent from last year. Based on November 1 conditions, yields were expected to average 48.3 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from last month and up 0.8 bushel from last year. Area for harvest in the United States was forecast at 82.4 million acres, unchanged from last month. Leffler said exports increased by 40 million bushels, the crush was increased by 10 million bushels, but that was not enough to offset the increase of 93 million bushels in production. As a result, the nation's soybean ending stocks were estimated at 465 million bushels, an increase of 40 million bushels over last month.


The nation's wheat ending stocks were increased by 50 million bushels over last month at 911 million bushels. Leffler said this was due to the decline in exports by 50 million bushels. The nation's hard red winter wheat stocks increased to a 16-year high and hard red spring wheat stocks increased to a 25-year high. Leffler said the U.S. numbers continue to show a larger crop and concern over demand for especially wheat and corn.


Our Leslie Smith interviewed Leffer for reaction of both reports. Click or tap here to listen to the full interview.


Click here for the national crop production report.


Click here for the latest WASDE report.

USDA Expects Beef and Pork Production to Fall While Broiler Output Rises

 

The USDA is predicting beef production lower for the current year and into 2016 as well- based on lower marketings coming out of feedlots. Pork production is also expected to be lower, while broiler output is headed higher. Here is the actual text of the November WASDE report for the meat and milk segments of the ag economy.


"The total meat production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are little changed from last month due to largely offsetting changes in red meat and poultry. Beef production for 2015 and 2016 is lowered on slower expected marketings from feedlots into early 2016. However, the slower pace of slaughter is partly offset by higher expected carcass weights. Pork production is lowered for 2015 on a slower expected pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights during the fourth quarter. The forecast for 2016 is unchanged. However, broiler production is forecast higher for both 2015 and 2016. September production was higher than expected, and hatchery data points to higher production into early 2016. Turkey production in September was also higher than expected, which boosted 2015 production, although no change was made to the forecast quarters. Egg production for 2015 is adjusted based on lower September hatching egg production, but production forecasts into 2016 are unchanged.


"Beef imports for 2015 are reduced to reflect the pace of trade to date; the forecast for 2016 is unchanged. Beef exports for 2015 are lowered as demand remains relatively weak; no change is made to 2016. Pork import and export forecasts are unchanged, but small adjustments are made to third-quarter 2015 to reflect September trade data. Broiler exports for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month as the pace of ex port recovery has been slower than expected.    

 

Click here to read more about cattle prices, hog prices and milk production forecasts for 2015 and 2016.

Oklahoma Cotton Yield Jumps a Hundred Pounds an Acre in November Report

 

The month of October proved to be a really great month for the 2015 Oklahoma cotton crop- as the yield of lint per acre jumped 110 pounds per acre from the October first to November first report- that is up over fifteen percent from just a month earlier.

It also means that the size of the 2015 crop is almost 200 pounds an acre larger than the 2014 crop. The 2015 production is now pegged at 330,000 bales of cotton, up from the 285,000 bales predicted in October and the final 2014 crop of 269,000 bales. (23% bigger crop than the 2014 output)

Keep in mind that this was the first time in four years that irrigation water was available in the Jackson County area from Lake Altus- plus dryland areas in many areas enjoyed a pretty good growing season. 

None of the other spring planted crop numbers from Oklahoma were a lot different from the October report- click here for a summary of both Oklahoma and Texas state numbers coming out of the November report released on Tuesday.

  

  

American Angus Association Celebrates Outstanding Year for Breed

 

The American Angus Association (AAA) is celebrating an outstanding year. In coming off the end of the 2015 fiscal year, Interim Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Richard Wilson said every metric that measures success and growth has been positive this past year.


"I know that we have a lot of reason to be successful with the genetics of the Angus cow and propelling us forward, but I've got a strong membership who can do a good job in producing this animal and all of the efficiency involved and a lot of consumer demand for our end product," Wilson said.


With the nation's expanding cow herd, Wilson believes they will be able to meet consumer demand with Angus genetics. Wilson is very proud of the Angus breeders that have embraced technology. For example, a growing number of Angus cattle are being genomically tested and that data is utilized by the AAA for genomic-enhanced Expected Progeny Difference (EPD). More and more Angus producers are providing that information to their bull buyers. The AAA registered 360,000 plus head of Angus cattle this past year. He said about one fourth were genomically tested. Five years ago, that number was slightly over one percent.


 I caught up with Wilson at the Angus Means Business Convention in Overland Park, Kansas. Click or tap here to listen to today's Beef Buzz. At the convention, we also talked about Certified Angus Beef and the new American Angus Association CEO Allen Moczygemba, who will begin his new role on December first.

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USDA Reminds Dairy Producers of Nov. 20 Margin Protection Program Enrollment Deadline

 

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Service Agency (FSA) Administrator Val Dolcini Tuesday announced that almost half of all dairy farms in America have made their annual elections for 2016 coverage under the Margin Protection Program, and reminded producers who have not yet enrolled that they have until Nov. 20, to select coverage.


Established by the 2014 Farm Bill, the program provides financial assistance to dairy producers when the margin - the difference between feed costs and the price of milk - falls below the coverage level selected by the applicant.


"This safety net is not automatic, so producers must visit their local FSA office to enroll before Nov. 20," said Dolcini. "Despite the best forecasts, the dairy industry is cyclical and markets can change quickly. This program is like any insurance product, where investing in a policy today will protect against catastrophic economic consequences tomorrow."


FSA estimates that based on current participation rates, had the program existed before the 2014 Farm Bill, producers in 2009 would have invested $73 million in premiums and received $1.44 billion in financial protection during that historically weak market period.  Click here to read more about the Margin Protection Program.

This N That - High Fire Danger Blowing In- and It's Big Iron Wednesday,  

 

Dry conditions coupled with warm November temps and STRONG gusty winds add up to High Fire Danger across a broad part of Oklahoma today- here's the map of Oklahoma as shown by our weather friend Travis Meyer from the News on 6 in Tulsa-


 
Eight counties in the Tulsa region have a Red Flag Warning in place today- those counties include Osage, Washington, Nowata, Tulsa, Pawnee, Creek, Okfuskee and Okmulgee.

High Wind Watch and Wind Advisories are in place for many of the northwestern counties of the state in the News9 portions of Oklahoma.

Besides the Fire Danger- the other reality of a day like today after a period of dry weather- BLOWING DIRT- that will be happening across a lot of north central and northwestern Oklahoma as this front rolls in.

Click here for the real time wind speed map from the Oklahoma Mesonet- as we finish our email up this morning- the winds are still mostly from a southerly direction- but from west to east- that will be changing as the day goes by- and those wind speeds will be picking up dramatically.

 

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