Howdy Neighbors!

Here's your morning farm news headlines from the Director of Farm Programming for the Radio Oklahoma Network, Ron Hays. We are proud to have KIS Futures as a regular sponsor of our daily email update. KIS Futures provides Oklahoma Farmers & Ranchers with futures & options hedging services in the livestock and grain markets- Click here for the free market quote page they provide us for our website or call them at 1-800-256-2555.

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Allendale pegs the US corn crop at just four million bushels shy of 13 billion. The soybean estimate is the same as last month's USDA estimate of 3.3 billion bushels. Allendale expects USDA to raise corn ending stocks by 56 million bushels, while cutting the soybean carryout 15 million, and wheat ending stocks by two million bushels. Winter wheat seedings are expected to be down 4.5 percent from a year ago.

DTN's Darin Newsom says some of the most anticipated numbers may come from the World Outlook Board as they offer a prediction of world crop production in several key crops and countries. He says the number that could have major impact is that of South American soybean production. There is the possibility that both the Brazil and Argentina soybean crop numbers could be ratcheted up by about 2 million metric tonnes each, adding a lot of soybeans to the global mix.

We will have details on these reports up on our website somewhere around 8 AM or a little after- including some thoughts from Tom Leffler on what he sees as significant. With so many reports to be issued this morning- it will make the opening of the grain market this morning in the open outcry at 9:30 much less certain than normal, as various people focus on different things they see as significant.

Click here for our front page- look under the section called Top Agricultural News for our coverage of these reports.

Anyway, Francl told members that a potential federal boost to the ethanol market, South American forecasts, reduced global cotton output and an international outpouring of "wheat, wheat, wheat" will influence U.S. farm fortunes this season.
While existing ethanol plants are running at an average 85 percent capacity, Francl reported production appears to be coming back on track as margins rebound. The economy is expected to slowly rally, and plants sidelined by bankruptcy and financial woes will resume operation under new management, he suggested.

"There's not much you can say, other than we've got wheat, wheat, wheat everywhere," Francl said, noting bushels flowing from the Black Sea region, the former Soviet Union, Argentina, Australia, and Canada. Thus, wheat likely will trade in the $5 per bushel to $6 per bushel range, with pressures toward a possible $4.50 per bushel by harvest.

Francl had a more positive message for cotton producers- seeing better prices in 2010 compared to 2009 for the fiber crop. You can read his full rundown of what he sees for the coming months by clicking on our link below.

Click here for the Terry Francl take on crop price outlook in the new year from Seattle and thd AFBF meeting.

In 2009, weak profit margins for producers of beef, pork and poultry led to reductions in supply as 2010 begins which means a more favorable supply situation. However, questions still remain on the demand side of the equation. "We really need help on the demand side, and there are signs of improvement," Anderson said."The general economy remains the key to future developments in the livestock market."

In addition to improving prices, livestock producers should see improvements in profit margins in 2010. ""Feed grain prices remain historically high but have stabilized in recent months. Increasing grain and oilseed stocks have reduced some of the pressure on grain prices that has been the dominant feature of those markets since late 2006," Anderson said. For cattle feedlots that have been losing a lot of money over the last couple of years, seeing some pens of cattle close out in the black will be welcome news- and hog producers desperately need that same outcome in the new year, since 2009 was brutal in the swine sector.

Click here for more on the Livestock market outlook that was offered in Seattle at the AFBF meeting.

"America's farmers, ranchers and veterinarians are committed to ensuring the health of their animals and the safety of their products," said Kay Johnson Smith, Alliance Executive Vice President. "Antibiotic use in agriculture is carefully monitored to provide a healthy, plentiful food supply for all."

The Alliance also believes that the AP article dangerously blurs the line between opinion and fact. Although the authors quote an unsubstantiated estimate that 70 percent of the antibiotics used in the U.S. are administered to livestock, they fail to acknowledge that nearly half of the total estimated amount is made up of ionophores and other compounds not used in human medicine that do not impact human resistance. The article also inaccurately suggests that animal feed is constantly "laced" with antibiotics. In reality, each antibiotic is administered according to the specifications of a U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved label that clearly indicates the number of doses and duration of use.

The Pew Commission on Industrial Farm Animal Production's 2008 report, Putting Meat on the Table, is cited multiple times in the story, despite its many biased and sensationalized claims. The American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA) and, most recently, the Federation of Animal Science Societies (FASS) have found "significant flaws" within the Pew Commission's report, stating that the group purposefully chose not to incorporate the findings of a significant number of participating scientists. FASS indicated that, while the Commission assumed that all large farms are inherently inhumane, there are many factors that influence animal well-being, including management, feeding systems, environmental features, and animal type. The Animal Agriculture Alliance Coalition provided numerous reports on the topics being considered for the Pew Commission's report, including antibiotic use, but input from the agriculture community was repeatedly ignored.

Click here for more from the Animal Ag Alliance on their issues with the Pew Report, which provides most of the basis for the AP story they have issues with. And you can click on the link below for the overview of the analysis of the FASS on the Pew Study that they have just released since the beginning of the new year.

Click here for the concerns about the Pew Report Raised by the Federation of Animal Science Societies

Stenholm says that groups like United Organizations of the Horse are raising awareness of this study, as well as how groups like HSUS continue to promote the idea that horses are pets and are no different than a cat or a dog. He believes that private property rights are being trampled with this line of thought- and it does not recognize the reality that in other countries, horse meat is eaten and accepted by consumers.

Click on the link below for our Beef Buzz(even tho we are talking horses today) show as heard on great radio stations around the state on the Radio Oklahoma Network. We also have the link to the UOH (United Organizations of the Horse) there which will take you to more information on the GAO study and has ways for you to submit your thoughts to the GAO on that site.

Click here for our Beef Buzz with former Texas Lawmaker Charlie Stenholm

For the month, two-wheel-drive smaller tractors (Under 40 HP) were down 6%, while 40 & under 100 HP were down 17%. Sales of two-wheel-drive 100+ HP were down 1.7% from last year, and four-wheel-drive tractors were up 17% for the month. For the year 2009, two-wheel drive smaller tractors (Under 40 HP) were down 20% from last year, while 40 & under 100 HP were down 29%. Sales of two-wheel drive 100+ HP were down 13%, while four-wheel-drive tractors were up 2% for the year.

Combine sales were up 3% for the month. Sales of combines for the year 2009 totaled 9,717, an increase of 15% over the same period in 2008.

These numbers were made available to us via Agri-Marketing Mgazaine.

We also invite you to check out our website at the link below to check out an archive of these daily emails, audio reports and top farm news story links from around the globe.

Click here to check out WWW.OklahomaFarmReport.Com

Here are some links we will leave in place on an ongoing basis- Click on the name of the report to go to that link:
Our Daily Market Wrapup from the Radio Oklahoma Network with Ed Richards and Tom Leffler- analyzing the Futures Markets from the previous Day-
Ron on RON Markets as heard on K101 mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Previous Day's Wheat Market Recap- Two Pager From The Kansas City Board of Trade looks at all three US Wheat Futures Exchanges with extra info on Hard Red Winter Wheat and the why of that day's market.
Daily Oklahoma Cash Grain Prices- As Reported by the Oklahoma Dept. of Agriculture. <
The National Daily Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary- as prepared by USDA.
The National Daily Slaughter Cattle Summary- as prepared by USDA.
Finally, Here is the Daily Volume and Price Summary from the Texas Cattle Feeders Association.