~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Oklahoma's latest farm and ranch news
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON for Friday February 2, 2007!A service of Midwest Farm Shows
-- Global Warming Report is Out- Scientists Offer Dire Warnings
-- Cattlefax Seminar- Expect Warmer Drier Summer in some of the US Corn Belt
-- South Korea- will they respond to Free Trade Deal deadline pressure?
-- Better Beef equals Better Demand!
-- Cattlefax sees a TWELVE BILLION BUSHEL corn crop in 2007.
-- Looking Ahead- Randy Blach’s Big Picture.
-- Roger Mills County Cattlemen's Bull Sale is still a GO.
Here's your morning farm news headlines from the Director of Farm Programming for the Radio Oklahoma Network, Ron Hays. Our email this morning is a service of Midwest Farm Shows, featuring the Southern Plains Farm Show in Oklahoma City April 19-21, 2007, as well as the Tulsa Farm Show held each December. Check out details of both of these exciting shows at the official website of Midwest Farm Shows by clicking here.
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Global Warming Report is Out- Scientists Offer Dire Warnings
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~This morning- the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has issued another report on Global Warming- claiming things are getting worse and that is clearly man's fault.
The big culprits, according to the study, are Carbon Dioxide and Methane emissions. Agriculture is named as one of the emitters of Methane in the study- altho the study admits that the "relative contributions from different source types are not well determined."
We have linked the summary of the report from this international body. There is a lot of talk that an international deal might be possible later this year that would replace the flawed Kyodo Protocol that the United States Congress refused to endorse.
Cattlefax Seminar- Expect Warmer Drier Summer in some of the US Corn Belt
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Dr. Art Douglas of Omaha presented a big picture weather outlook for the 30th year at the 2007 Cattlefax Outlook Seminar during the Cattle Industry Convention here in Nashville. He told cattlemen that the current El Nino is dying- could be dead by March- April and that usually will mean a warm and dry summer for North America. He also believes that we could be facing an active Atlantic Ocean storm season.
Dr. Douglas believes that Australia will benefit from the dying El Nino by this summer(our summer) with better rainfall totals after being in a very tough drought. He adds that we will see a spring season in the US corn and soybean belt that will be conducive to planting those crops. But, he sees High Pressure during the summer that could make it tough to get multiple storms bringing rain to the Midwest this summer.
South Korea- will they respond to Free Trade Deal deadline pressure?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Cattlefax Analyst Brett Stuart believes that the desire of South Korea to reach a Free Trade Agreement will help bring about a beef trade resolution- and it could be coming soon. Good adds that we simply must get back to pre-BSE levels of beef exports- and assuming we achieve decent market access in Korea and especially Japan- that is doable. In those export markets that we have full access, we are now higher than the 2003 beef export levels by some seven percent.
The other key for Exports of beef will be the OIE designation that we discussed with Greg Doud from the NCBA. The OIE is expected to designate the United States as having at least a Controlled Risk designation. This would signify that US beef is safe as long as Specified Risk Materials are removed- bones that are not SRMs don’t matter- no matter what the South Koreans claim.
We have linked below some of the key thoughts of Brett as he presented the International outlook for beef here in 2007.
Click here for Brett Stuart on the International Outlook for US Beef.
Better Beef equals Better Demand!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The upper half of choice and into the Prime grade for beef enjoyed robust demand in 2007- and analyst Kevin Good says that is likely to continue. He told the Cattlefax Seminar that actual beef production was up 5.5% in 2006- but that the net beef supply to the domestic market was up just a half of a percent- the rest being drained off by the rebounding export markets.
Cattlefax has guestimated the winter storm loss to cattle feeders as a hundred million dollars or probably higher. That is based on their estimate that at least 100 million to as much as 200 million pounds of production has been lost to the winter weather. At a current cash cattle market price of 86 cents a pound, it adds up fast!
We have a link below to listen to Kevin Good as he gives us his demand outlook as well as his price outlook for 2007- $85 for fats (down a dollar from 2006), $97-98 for Yearlings (down from $107.50 in 2006) and for calves- he sees an average price for 2007 of $110, off from $125.50 average of 2006.
Cattlefax sees a TWELVE BILLION BUSHEL corn crop in 2007.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Mike Murphy with Cattlefax reports that the cattle industry analytical group believes that we need to produce at least 12 billion bushels of corn in 2007- and they believe that with a three year average yield of 153 bushels per acre will be harvested on some 85 million acres- which gets us to just over 12 billion bushels. Murphy says you need to remember that this is a demand driven market and that corn prices are not going to fall back to the old lower trading range anytime soon. He adds that we are in a higher trading range for feed grains, thanks to Ethanol.
We have Mike Murphy's comments on grain prices and the fact that this higher plateau is ikely to stay around for awhile. The link is below.
Listen to Mike Murphy's call for a 12 billion bushel corn crop.
Looking Ahead- Randy Blach’s Big Picture.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Blach, the head of the Cattlefax Organization says that he believes the current cattle cycle will be stretched out with the high feed grain outlook. He says that it is absolutely vital that we regain market access because that is worth about $6 to $7 per hundred for slaughter cattle in the years ahead.
It is a demand bull market on corn and that means higher corn prices are here to stay. One interesting fact that Cattlefax has picked up is that we have seen some decline in southern plains feedlot numbers and a slight rise in the northern feedlots. This is not a massive shift but it will be interesting to watch in the next couple of years.
We have Randy's overview at the end of the Cattlefax Seminar up on our BOVINE BLOG- and we have a link to our Blog for you to check out as the day progresses- go listen to Randy and then check back later to see what has been added as we continue to cover this 2007 Cattle Industry Convention.
Roger Mills County Cattlemen's Bull Sale is still a GO.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~That's the late word that we have gotten from Lynda Lucas out of Cheyenne as the weather continues to play games with us in Oklahoma. The 29th annual Roger Mills Cattlemen's Association annual bull sale is set for this Saturday, Feb. 3rd at the Roger Mills County Ag Pavilion just outside of Cheyenne, Oklahoma. They have 95 outstanding bulls from some of the leading cattle producers in Western Oklahoma.
If you would like more information on the sale, give Lynda Lucas a call at 580-983-2772 or Earl Bottom at 580-821-0633.
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