From: Ron Hays [] on behalf of Ron Hays []
Sent: Thursday, June 11, 2009 7:10 AM
Subject: Oklahoma's Farm News Update
Oklahoma's latest farm and ranch news
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON for June 11, 2009
A service of Johnston Enterprises, KIS Futures and American Farmers & Ranchers Mutual Insurance Company!
-- Rains Halt Mid Week Harvest Efforts
-- House Ag Committee Set for Climate Change Fireworks
-- Whether You Call it Hanging in There or Hunkering Down- It's Still All About Survival Until Beef Demand and Market Prices Improve
-- In case You Missed It- Wheat Production for Oklahoma Called Nine Percent Lower Than in May
-- Soybean Stocks Tight- and Likely to Get TIGHTER
-- From the Heritage Foundation- They Say For Farmers, Cap and Trade is a Permanent Drought Season
-- Show Me State Turns Out Large Crowd of Animal ID Haters
-- Let's Check the Markets!

Howdy Neighbors!

Here's your morning farm news headlines from the Director of Farm Programming for the Radio Oklahoma Network, Ron Hays. We are pleased to have American Farmers & Ranchers Mutual Insurance Company as a regular sponsor of our daily update- click here to go to their AFR web site to learn more about their efforts to serve rural America!

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Rains Halt Mid Week Harvest Efforts
It was a line of rain showers that stretched from border to border during the day on Wednesday that kept combines from making much progress in cutting out the 2009 Oklahoma hard red winter wheat crop. We traveled the Oklahoma City to Enid US 81 Route yesterday after lunch, and it rained on us pretty much the entire way- and after the rains went through, we stopped and got a few pictures on combines left standing still until we dry off a bit.

The amounts of precipitation are such that if we can stay dry at any one location for several hours today- harvest could well resume. One field we walked through near Waukomis was damp but not muddy at all. In fact, the ground still had some cracks in it.

Click on the link below and you can see a few of the shots we took yesterday afternoon in that area. I thought it was interesting that the posted wheat price yesterday afternoon was several cents above the range of prices quoted by USDA from Wednesday that we link for you. The Waukomis elevator posted a price of $6.20, and that's about 18 cents above the top end of the range in the Oklahoma Dept of Ag roundup of local elevators.

Click here for some Harvest at Rest Shots from the Garfield County area on Wednesday afternoon late.

House Ag Committee Set for Climate Change Fireworks
One thing is for certain. After the hearing planned for this afternoon in Longworth at the House Ag Committee's Hearing Room, there will be little doubt where agriculture stands on the Waxman-Markey bill, also known as the Climate Change Bill. The leadoff witness before the lawmakers will be Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, and he will have some explaining to do to both his Democrat and Republican friends about the intentions of the Obama Administration and the treatment of agriculture under this massive proposal. In particular, Republican Ranking member Frank Lucas of Oklahoma wants to know if the Administration plans to push for USDA to be the lead agency on matters directly tied to agriculture in this proposal- or will it be EPA.

The second panel is kinda like Murderers Row from the great Yankees team in the Babe Ruth era- some of the major players in farm group circles and conservation. Bob Stallman of AFBF will raise questions about Climate Change, as will Roger Johnson of NFU. Johnson has been more hopeful than Stallman about agriculture ending up with a net gain with carbon credits, but is concerned that Waxman-Markey makes a point of ignoring agriculture when it comes to any benefits.

The final panel of the day before Collin Peterson, Frank Lucas and the Committee bring in one major element of agribusiness and a former Oklahoma lawmaker who is the former holder of the district seat that Frank Lucas now sits in. The President of the Fertilizer Institute, Ford West, will testify, as will Glenn English, now the CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative based in Virginia.

Whichever side you have chosen on this issue and this bill, it will be a most entertaining and probably lively dialogue that will be offered after lunch today- the hearing begins at 1 PM central time.

Click here for the House Ag Committee site- and the full list of witnesses for this hearing.

Whether You Call it Hanging in There or Hunkering Down- It's Still All About Survival Until Beef Demand and Market Prices Improve
We spent three days this week on the Beef Buzz radio program with Dr. Derrell Peel of OSU as we looked at the cattle market from several different angles. The third of these Beef Buzzes focused on the strategies that might help cattle producers survive until better market prices show up.

Dr. Peel and other economists believe those prices will eventually ride into town- the question is when.We talk about that timing with him on this third and final Beef Buzz with him of this week. The webstory linked below also has the previous two Beef Buzzes with Derrell linked, so you can go back and review his thoughts on Memorial Day Beef Movement, cash cattle prices and market outlook for the yearlings, stockers and calves we buy and/or sell.

Click here for our Beef Buzz with OSU Cattle Market Watcher Dr. Derrell Peel.

In case You Missed It- Wheat Production for Oklahoma Called Nine Percent Lower Than in May
USDA released two reports on Wednesday morning that provided a lot of data. One of the key pieces of information for us in the southern great plains was the size of the US Hard Red Winter Wheat crop. The five key Hard Red Winter wheat states show Oklahoma's crop smaller than the May estimate, Kansas and Texas predicted at the same level as May and Colorado and Nebraska with a higher production expectation than in May.

The numbers from these states are as follows:

Oklahoma 73.5 million bushels (down 7 million bushels from the May guess, 93 million bushels under the 2008 crop)
Kansas 340 million bushels (same as May, 16 million bushels smaller than in 2008)
Texas 64.8 million bushels (same as May, 55.8 million bushels smaller than in 2008)
Colorado 80.5 million bushels (6.9 million bushels BIGGER than the May estimate, 23.5 million bushels BIGGER than in 2008)
Nebraska 72 million bushels (4.8 million bushels BIGGER than the May estimate and 1.48 million bushels smaller than in 2008)

You can access the more details on the report by clicking on the link below- it has the rundown on both the Wheat Production report as well as the ERS Supply/Demand data that came out on Wednesday morning as well.

Click here for more on the Wheat Production Numbers and Supply Demand Data

Soybean Stocks Tight- and Likely to Get TIGHTER
Terry Francl of the American Farm Bureau Federation says the drop in Soybean Stocks is the biggest news coming out of USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Wednesday. Farm Bureau says due to increased domestic soybean crushings and higher projected exports, the Agriculture Department reduced U.S. soybean stocks by 20 million bushels, to 110 million bushels. That 110 million bushel number figures out to be a two week supply of beans available by the end of the current marketing year.

Terry Francl, senior economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, sees the potential for even lower U.S. soybean stocks due to improved exports. The economist points out that - many analysts were expecting an even bigger drop in soybean stocks due to strong crushing demand and a robust export picture. However, by the time the crop year ends on Aug. 31, Francl expects - projected soybean exports to increase another 20 million to 30 million bushels.

The latest WASDE report made no adjustment to soybean yields, holding the number at trend line projections. Francl said - this appears to be a similar planting season as last year, where the average U.S. soybean yield came in three bushels below the current trend yield of 42.6 bushels per acre. As for corn and the late planting season, Francl said - concerns about acreage will continue to influence the market until the end of June.

From the Heritage Foundation- They Say For Farmers, Cap and Trade is a Permanent Drought Season
Economists at The Heritage Foundation's Center for Data Analysis are claiming that farmers will be adversely affected by the Waxman-Markey Cap and Trade Bill(the bill we wrote about earlier- to be reviewed by the House Ag Committee this afternoon)

The think tankers say the following impacts will hit farmers like a jack hammer:

Farm income (or the amount left over after paying all expenses) is expected to drop $8 billion in 2012, $25 billion in 2024, and over $50 billion in 2035. These are decreases of 28%, 60% and 94%, respectively.
The average net income lost over the 2010-2035 timeline is $23 billion - a 57% decrease from the baseline.
Construction costs of farm buildings will go up by 5.5 percent in 2025 and 10 percent by 2034 (from the baseline).
By 2035, gasoline and diesel costs are expected to be 58 percent higher and electric rates 90 percent higher.

And the final insult, according to the Heritage Foundation, is that everyone who eats will end up paying more even as farmers are slammed economically. The Foundation predicts with the Climate Change measure that passed the House Energy and Commerce Committee that "much higher food prices for consumers at the grocery stores" will result.

Click here to read the blog on the Heritage Foundation website about Climate Change and Farmers

Show Me State Turns Out Large Crowd of Animal ID Haters
I did not have a chance to get this in yesterday- but on Tuesday, it was another day of USDA Listening on Animal ID- and About all they heard was "get rid of it." The setting was Jefferson City, Missouri and a crowd of more than 250 was overwhelmingly against Animal ID, especially Mandatory Animal ID. It was mostly a Missouri crowd, altho several folks from Arkansas drove up to the Missouri State Capital for the session.

Of the more than 50 individuals who spoke Tuesday morning only one spoke in favor of a mandatory program (a pork producer) and was met with vocal disapproval. In fact, one report said he was almost booed out of the building. It appears that the opposition forces to Animal ID are feeling their organic oats, and have used these listening sessions very effectively to demand USDA back away from a mandatory system- and perhaps from even a voluntary program- at least as it now is structured.

Our friend Jason Vance wrote a good article on the Jeff City meeting- and we have it linked for you below- there is one more Listening Session that is within a day's drive of most of Oklahoma- and that will be next Tuesday at the Route 66 Casino & Conference Center, 14500 Central Avenue, SW in Albuquerque. Click here for the agenda that has been followed at all of these meetings.

Read more about the Jeff City Animal ID Listening Session, Dominated by Those Who Want Animal ID to Go Away.

Our thanks to Midwest Farms Shows, PCOM, P & K Equipment/ P & K Wind Energy, Johnston Enterprises, AFR and KIS Futures for their support of our daily Farm News Update. For your convenience, we have our sponsors' websites linked here- just click on their name to jump to their website- check their sites out and let these folks know you appreciate the support of this daily email, as their sponsorship helps us keep this arriving in your inbox on a regular basis!!

We also invite you to check out our website at the link below to check out an archive of these daily emails, audio reports and top farm news story links from around the globe.

Click here to check out WWW.OklahomaFarmReport.Com

Let's Check the Markets!
OKC West in El Reno had 6,250 cattle for their Wednesday sale this week. Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher, except over 900 lbs 2.00-4.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady. Demand good with a few more buyers than the norm this week. Stocker cattle and calves steady, instance 2.00 higher. Demand improved, however several more long weaned cattle available. Click here for the complete report, including a full rundown of prices, from the USDA Market News reporter.

Here are some links we will leave in place on an ongoing basis- Click on the name of the report to go to that link:
Our Daily Market Wrapup from the Radio Oklahoma Network with Ed Richards and Tom Leffler- analyzing the Futures Markets from the previous Day-
Ron on RON Markets as heard on K101 mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Previous Day's Wheat Market Recap- Two Pager From The Kansas City Board of Trade looks at all three US Wheat Futures Exchanges with extra info on Hard Red Winter Wheat and the why of that day's market.
Daily Oklahoma Cash Grain Prices- As Reported by the Oklahoma Dept. of Agriculture. <
The National Daily Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary- as prepared by USDA.
The National Daily Slaughter Cattle Summary- as prepared by USDA.
Finally, Here is the Daily Volume and Price Summary from the Texas Cattle Feeders Association.

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phone: 405-473-6144

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