Allendale's Rich Nelson Says Latest Wasde Confirms Expectations Regarding the Demand for CornFri, 09 Apr 2021 14:41:43 CDT
USDA on Friday released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. USDA lowered corn ending stocks for the 2020-21 by 150 million bushels (mb) to 1.352 billion bushels (bb) but held pat with soybean ending stocks at 120 mb, and raised corn use for feed, seed and industrial use, as well as exports to drop the ending stocks for the crop.
Associate Farm Director, KC Sheperd spoke with Allendales Rich Nelson and he says overall, the report did confirm a lot of the trades expectations regarding the good situation for demand, "Regarding Corn, a lot of the trade feels there's still quite a bit more to go. USDA did drop stocks from 1.502 billion bushels to now 1.352, Again most of the trade would still suggested more for corn for ethanol as well as exports."
Nelson said numbers for the soybean side were relatively neutral, "USDA left the US numbers unchanged at 120 million bushels and that was expected. The world numbers, maybe where a little negative viewpoints might be seen. The USDA did raise these Brazilian soybean crop from 134 Now 136 million bushels. As far as the discussion on wheat, we did see numbers raised a 836 million bushels last month. Now, to 852. Keep in mind though, the trades focus is certainly on this new crop situation and maybe a little weather threat so that's why we're not seeing a negative ration on the wheat side on today's discussion."
Nelson said he does think we will continue to see some bullish numbers on the wheat and corn side, but not for soybeans, "In fact, we're kind of turning our old crops soybean view point more neutral right now. Mainly because we've had seven weeks in a row of relatively low levels of export sales, so we're not at the same pace we were at the start of the year, regarding exciting numbers. New crop numbers for soybeans I think is quite as important issue looks like we'll be very very close to what would be the situation for old crop is, that's going to take some time to be recognized. Discussion on the corn side though I still think in front of us. There are further increases coming for corn for ethanol and certainly coming for exports numbers from USDA So that's certainly the trades viewpoint as well."
To hear more from Allendale's Rich Nelson, click or Tap below.
You can also access the full reports here:
-- Crop Production:
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
USDA increased total corn use by 150 mb, increasing feed and residual used by 50 mb, raising ethanol use by 25 million and increasing exports by 75 mb.
Ethanol use was increased to 4.975 bb, up 25 mb from March.
Exports were increased to 2.675 bb, based on higher export inspection data for March and was the largest monthly total export total on record.
Ending stocks for the 2020-21 corn crop came in at 1.352 bb. The pre-report average for corn stocks came in at 1.346 bb.
The stocks-to-use ratio for the 2020-21 corn crop comes in at 9.15%, down from 10.2% last month.
Despite the higher use and demand, USDA held pat of the farmgate price, leaving it unchanged at $4.30 a bushel.
Globally, USDA lowered beginning stocks to 302.99 million metric tons (mmt), but increased production by 740,000 metric tons (mt) to 1,137.05 mmt. Exports globally were increased 710,000 mt as well. Global ending stocks were lowered 3.82 mmt to 283.85 mmt. USDA also lowered Argentina's corn production by 500,000 metric tons to 47.5 mmt. Brazil's corn production was held steady at 109 mmt, the same as March.
U.S. soybean ending stocks were left unchanged from the March report, at 120 mb, well within pre-report expectations. USDA bumped exports up 30 mb, which was offset by a 10 mb drop in crushings and a 19 mb decrease in seed and residual use.
Soybean farmgate prices were bumped up 10 cents to $11.25 per bushel.
Globally, USDA increased soybean ending stocks to 86.87 mmt, above pre-report expectations, and based on higher stocks for China and Brazil. Global production was also raised 1.37 mmt to 363.19 mmt, thanks in part to Brazil's estimated soybean production being bumped up 2 mmt to 136 mmt. USDA left Argentina's production unchanged at 47.5 mmt. Global soybean exports were increased 1.19 mmt, with Brazil, Russia and U.S. exports adjusted upward, while Paraguay and Ukraine shipments were lowered.
USDA lowered imports for the 2020-21 crop by 10 mb to 110 mb, which lowered total supply for the 2020-21 wheat crop to 2.964 bb.
Food and seed use were held pat, but USDA lowered use for feed and residual use by 25 mb to 100 mb, citing lower use reported in the NASS Grain Stocks report at the end of March. Total domestic use was lowered by 25 mb to 1.128 bb.
Exports were held pat as well at 985 mb.
Total use was lowered 25 mb to 2.113 bb.
Ending stocks were bumped up 16 mb to 852 mb.
USDA maintained the farmgate price for wheat at $5 a bushel, the same as March.
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