Drought Monitor: Oklahoma Drought Intensifies Amid Heat and Limited Rainfall

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Oklahoma’s drought conditions took a significant turn for the worse this week, with expanding areas of abnormally dry conditions driven by persistent heat and below-normal rainfall. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the state, while forecasters are watching the potential for much-needed precipitation in the days ahead.

According to the Drought Monitor, the exceptional drought has expanded by .15% this week. Conditions are present in Washita, Kiowa, Beckham, Woodward, and Roger Mills counties. Exceptional drought covers 2.25% of the state.

Moderate to extreme drought conditions in the current period indicate that 59.83% of the state is affected compared to 43.84% last week. Abnormally dry conditions now cover 95.57% of the state compared to 65.40% a week ago, and only 4.43% of the state is drought-free.

According to the 6-to-10-day precipitation outlook map,  most of Oklahoma is leaning above a 33-40% chance of rain, while the panhandle is leaning above a 40-50% chance and far southern Oklahoma is expecting near-normal conditions.

Moderate to heavy rain fell on almost all areas of dryness and drought along the Eastern Seaboard, improving conditions across large swaths of the region. Numerous locations experienced inundating rains and flooding, but drought conditions in some areas have been securely entrenched, limiting the amount of improvement introduced due to continuing impacts such as reduced water supplies, low groundwater, and similar hydrologic concerns. Heavy to excessive rains also fell on some areas of dryness and drought farther west, from the central and northeastern Great Plains eastward through much of the Great Lakes Region and Lower Ohio Valley, prompting a few swaths of improvement there. But while heavy rains broadly affected the Eastern Seaboard and the Midwest, there were a few regions that missed the heavier amounts, leaving conditions essentially unchanged or even allowing for some deterioration. Temperatures averaging 6 to locally 12 deg F above normal in parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Plains, along with unusually low relative humidity across much of the Dakotas and Nebraska, accelerated surface moisture loss. To the south, heavy rain was not as widespread across the Lower Mississippi Valley, the southern half of the Great Plains, and most of the High Plains. Still, moderate rains were not uncommon here, and there were isolated heavy amounts topping 2 inches. Thus, a variable pattern featuring areas of both deterioration and improvement was observed, with many locations essentially unchanged. Precipitation was markedly deficient from southern Kansas southward through much of Texas, resulting in broad areas of deterioration. Most of these areas were also warmer than normal, although humidity was not lacking. Much of the Texas Panhandle averaged 6 to 9 deg F above normal for the week. Other parts of this region were not as extreme, but most sites still averaged somewhat warmer than normal From the Rockies westward, precipitation was sparse. Moderate amounts, with isolated totals over 2 inches, fell in association with the Southwest monsoon across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Over the remainder of the West, scattered areas recorded several tenths of an inch to slightly over an inch across the Rockies and far Pacific Northwest, but most places recorded light precipitation at best. Very little rain fell across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, the interior Pacific Northwest, and California, although this is a dry time of year for many of those areas. Temperatures were above normal outside the Pacific Northwest Dryness and heat intensified through most of Puerto Rico, with some areas recording one of the driest Julys on record. Hawaii and Alaska saw some new areas of abnormal dryness develop, along with moderate drought in extreme southeast Alaska.

In the South: Moderate to heavy rain was fairly widespread across central and eastern Tennessee and the eastern half of Mississippi, although amounts exceeding 2 inches were mostly limited to north-central and southeastern Tennessee. Light rain (several tenths of an inch) with scattered higher totals were observed farther west across Arkansas and, to a lesser extent, Louisiana. Farther west, there were a few swaths of moderate to heavy rain in parts of northwestern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and central to southwestern Texas, but most of these two states reported no measurable rain to a few tenths at best. Recently, very hot weather has baked the norther portion of this region from the Red River Valley and the Texas Panhandle northward. Temperatures averaged 1-3 deg F above normal in northeastern Texas, 3 to 6 deg F above normal across most of Oklahoma, and 5 to 9 deg F above normal in the Texas Panhandle. Portions of Deep South Texas were also warmer than their typical mid-summer temperatures. The dryness and heat have accelerated deterioration across Oklahoma and northern Texas, where many locations are seeing dying grass, depleted stream-fed and farm ponds, and increased fire danger. The past 30 days brought less than half of normal rain to most locations from the Texas Panhandle and the Red River Valley northward, with the driest areas (less than one-quarter of normal) covering the central and eastern Texas Panhandle, western and northern Oklahoma, and some regions near the Red River. Subnormal humidity at the same time also aggravated the situation in the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. As a result, drought degradation was widespread across most of Oklahoma and northern Texas, indicative of rapid surface moisture loss. Other areas of significant deterioration included western Texas, Deep South Texas, and western Arkansas. Abnormal dryness was also brought in to a few spots across Louisiana and Mississippi while more intensely dry conditions over portions of Arkansas and adjacent Mississippi were essentially unchanged. The past 30 days also brought less than half of normal rain to numerous locations across western and southern Texas, Arkansas, northern and eastern Louisiana, and central through southern Mississippi. Improvement was limited to portions of the wetter areas across eastern Tennessee.

In the High Plains: Conditions varied significantly across the High Plains Region last week. Heavy rains of 2 to 5 inches with isolated higher amounts fell on northeastern South Dakota, a large part of northern and eastern Nebraska, and northeastern Kansas. Moderate to heavy amounts were observed elsewhere across the eastern and central sections of the Dakotas and Nebraska, southern and north-central and east-central Kansas, southeastern and the higher elevations farther west in Colorado, and patches of central and northern Wyoming and the western Dakotas. In the some of the drier parts of the region across North Dakota, central and western South Dakota, and western Nebraska, unusually hot weather accompanied the relatively low rainfall amounts. For the last 30 days, these locations generally averaged 4 to 8 deg F above normal, with a few spots in the western Dakotas and adjacent parts of Wyoming and Nebraska reporting 30-day average temperatures 8 to 10 deg F above normal. This included a few spells of extreme heat with high temperatures over 100 deg F. At the same time, relative humidity has been unusually low. Many areas across eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, and adjacent Nebraska reported 4-week relative humidity averaging among the driest 10 percent of historic observations for the time period, and a few isolated spots were as dry as the lower 2 percent of historical observations. Less remarkable but still consistently below-normal relative humidity has prevailed over most of the region from the central Dakotas and Nebraska westward, along with most of Colorado. The dichotomy of conditions between eastern and western reaches of the Region is reflected in the changes introduced in the Drought Monitor this week. Most of North Dakota, the western half of South Dakota, and parts of northeastern Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeastern Colorado saw conditions deteriorate, as did southern Kansas adjacent to Oklahoma. Meanwhile, eastern South Dakota, central through eastern Nebraska, southeastern Colorado, and western Wyoming notched sizeable areas of improvement. A new patch the worst drought classification (D4) was brought into northwestern Nebraska and another introduced in part of the Denver Metro Area. Existing areas of D4 remained intact in the Nebraska Panhandle, east-central Colorado, south-central and interior western Colorado. A majority of Wyoming and Colorado remain entrenched in D3, as do western reaches of Nebraska and South Dakota along with a few scattered locales farther south and east. In contrast, dryness has been entirely removed from sizeable parts of southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and the east-central Dakotas.

In the West: Areas of moderate to locally heavy rain, at least partially driven by a mature monsoon circulation, were observed across much of southern and eastern New Mexico, southeastern Arizona, the higher elevations of central Arizona, and a few scattered patches stretching from southern Utah northward through southeastern Idaho, southern Montana, and eastern Montana. A few swatches received similar amounts in western Washington. Other locations recorded little or no precipitation, although this is not uncommon during summer across much of California and the Far West. Conditions across southeastern Idaho and southern Montana have been exacerbated by temperatures averaging 6 to 10 deg F above normal during the past 30 days, including a few days of intense heat. Near- or below-normal temperatures during this period were restricted to the Pacific Northwest, central and northern California, and western Nevada. Relative humidity has been seasonably low during this period. The dry and hot conditions are not too out of character for July across California, Nevada, and southern Oregon, with drought designations unchanged from last week. Farther north, the lack of winter snowpack despite ample winter precipitation is starting to take its toll, with increasing moisture shortages leading to degradations across eastern Washington, northwestern and eastern Oregon, much of the Idaho Panhandle, and parts of eastern Montana. Meanwhile, locally heavy precipitation over the past few weeks, enhanced by rain from a mature monsoonal circulation, prompted localized areas of improvement in west-central New Mexico, parts of southeastern Arizona and some higher elevations farther north in the state, and a few places scattered across Utah.

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