Mon, 03 Oct 2022 08:40:42 CDT
Fire Situation Report for October 3, 2022
Statewide Discussion: Warm afternoon temperatures and low afternoon relative humidity values encouraged very receptive fine fuels each day through the weekend and moderate initial attack activity across Oklahoma. Ahead of a frontal boundary expected to arrive in the Oklahoma Panhandle late morning tomorrow, elevated fire danger will again develop over most of Oklahoma today and again on Tuesday. Some slight precipitation chances develop later today in the far western Oklahoma panhandle with slightly better opportunity for the Panhandle and extreme northwestern Oklahoma Tuesday night with the bulk of the state remaining dry. Another frontal boundary is forecasted to move into Oklahoma Thursday night into Friday again offering slight chances of rain. More notable will be the cooler temperatures on the heels of the cold fronts. The seasonal drying of fuels has been accelerated by the warm and dry pattern and the weather system late week may provide, at best, a speed bump, in building fire danger concern.
Southeastern & South-Central Oklahoma:
Temperature will warm into the upper-80°’s this afternoon under clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values settling in around 20% again offering very receptive fine-dead fuel moisture at 4%. Light easterly winds will limit fire spread potential offering good opportunity for initial attack success although timber and plantation fuels will continue to exhibit problematic fire behavior. Grass-dominated fuels will support head fire rates of spread around 52 ft/min with flame lengths 8-11 ft. while timber litter will exhibit ROS at 15 ft/min with FL 4-6 ft. Pine plantations will continue to exhibit problematic fire behavior and terrain influenced runs with ROS 15-35 ft/min with average FL 5-8 ft.
Western & North-central Oklahoma:
Temperature will warm into the mid-80°’s across most of the area with cooler temperatures in the western Panhandle counties where some slight precipitation chances develop later today. Relative humidity values will again dive into the 16-24% range with some sky cover later this afternoon yielding fine-dead fuel moisture at 4% with some local observation tapping 3%. South winds this afternoon sustained 10-15 mph with dome gusts nearing 20 mph during peak heating this afternoon will support head fire rates of spread 88-127 ft/min in rangeland fuels with flame lengths 9-13 ft. Wind speeds will diminish following sunset offering good opportunity for successful initial attack efforts.
Light winds this afternoon will limit fire spread potential although fine fuels will be very receptive. Temperature this afternoon 84°-87° under clear skies with relative humidity values 19-24% will yield fine-dead fuel moisture at 4%. With light east to southeast winds, head fire rates of spread in grass dominated fuels will be generally less than 50 ft/min with flame lengths 7-11 ft. offering very good opportunity for successful initial attack efforts.
94% of Oklahoma is in the grips of drought intensity categorization of Severe (D2) as warm and dry conditions continue to drive composite fuel moisture values down. Nearly 18% of the state is in Exceptional (D4) drought categorization. Energy Release Component has eclipsed the 97th percentile in parts of southeastern Oklahoma with 90th percentile spanning much of the state. Opportunity for rainfall in the forecast may, at best, provide a brief pause in the deepening wildfire concern but only where that rainfall develops and provides wetting amounts. Cooler temperatures in the near-term forecast may offer abbreviated burning periods although the expectation for increasing rates of wildfire occurrence and fire severity continue to build.
Refer to: https://ag.ok.gov/divisions/forestry-services/ for the most current burn ban information and links to specific burn ban proclamations.
NE Area – 2 Fires Burned 8 Acres (Cause: 2-Incendiary)
EC Area – 2 Fires Burned 15.8 Acres (Cause:1-Debris, 1-Incendiary)
SE Area – 15 Fires Burned 70.9 Acres (Cause: 3-Escaped Debris, 2-Equipment, 10-Incendiary)
Large / Significant Fire Activity within the OFS Protection Area:
• Herndon Road Fire (McCurtain County) – 5 Acres / 80% Contained, 1 Structure
• Spare Fire (Delaware County) – 110 Acres / 95% Contained
• Kerns Ranch Fire (Pushmataha County) – 3,350 Acres / 90% Contained
• Rereg Road Fire (McCurtain County) – 260 Acres / 90% Contained
• Solomon’s Grave Fire (Pushmataha County) – 414 Acres / 95% Contained
• Blue Hole Fire (McCurtain County) – 1,153 est. Acres / 95% Contained
Fire Activity with OFS Response outside of the Protection Area: No New Activity
OFS Prescribed Fire Activity: No New Activity