Mon, 31 Oct 2022 09:04:21 CDT
State Climatologist, Gary McManus says we may see some big drought improvements as an upper low moves into the West and kicks up our southerly winds, bringing lots of Gulf Moisture (and warmer air) up our way. McManus says "We'll have a dryline and front to deal with as we get into Thursday and Friday, so a focus for severe storms. Then as that upper low swings out over us, the threat turns more towards heavy rain on Saturday."
Severe potential appears most likely across portions of the TX Panhandle into northwest OK and western KS beginning Thursday evening into the overnight hours as stronger height falls and increasing ascent spreads eastward into western portions of the central/southern Plains. Forecast soundings indicate thermodynamic and shear profiles favorable for organized cells capable of all severe hazards. On Friday, the surface front is forecast to move slowly eastward across western TX/OK. A combination of heavy rain and severe potential is expected, with greatest relative severe potential likely focused across southern portions of OK into western/central TX near and south of a surface low.
McManus says there's still a lot to sort out, but we will have another week of temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal as that wind machine kicks in, and the added moisture should help us stay pretty warm in the mornings.
As the storm system moves closer, he says things could and probably will change, but so far the rainfall map looks wet for this weekend possibly bringing some Soaking rain into the state starting Thursday and ending on Sunday.
Current rain projections show widespread 2"-4" of rain which would hopefully bring some Big drought improvement across the state. We may see Severe Weather, so McManus says to prepare for that, but so far maps look hopeful for a good rain.
Keep Praying for Rain!
