The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released reports on India, Pakistan, Turkey and Vietnam through the Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) March 31 and April 4.
India
FAS Mumbai estimates marketing year (MY) 2023/24 India cotton production at 25.5 million 480 lb. bales on 12.4 million hectares area planted, a decrease from the previous year due to the expectation that farmers will shift cotton acreage to higher return crops such as oilseeds and pulses. However, yields are expected to recover as farmers will plant shorter duration early maturation varieties. Mill consumption is estimated at 23.5 million 480 lb. bales, as yarn and textile demand weakens in major international markets. Higher exportable supplies, at 2.8 million 480 lb. bales, indicates that export prospects are better than last year, while imports will reduce significantly due to tighter global supplies. The Government of India continues to explore various approaches to enhance yield of extra-long staple (ELS) cotton and reduce import dependence.
Pakistan
Cotton production is forecast to rebound 36% to 5.3 million bales in 2023/24. After the flood damaged 2022/23 crop, yields should return to trend, while better returns from competing crops will limit area expansion. Following the sharp decline in cotton use and textile exports in 2022/23, a modest rebound in both is forecast for 2023/24. However, the increased domestic crop will limit expansion in cotton imports. Despite the many economic challenges facing the textile sector, cotton imports through the first seven months of 2023/24 were up about 7% compared to the previous year. As a result, the 2022/23 import and use estimates are increased. Lack of foreign exchange to import raw material and machinery, currency fluctuation, and rising energy prices will continue to constrain the textile sector’s growth through 2024.
Turkey
The February 6, 2023 earthquakes greatly affected Kahramanmaras, the center of Turkey’s cotton yarn and textile production, but the industry is already on the road to recovery. Turkey’s cotton production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast to decrease to 735,000 metric tons (MT; 3.4 million bales) based on the assumption that farmers will choose to plant less cotton in response to decreasing cotton prices. Cotton farmers were unable to make adequate profits in MY 2022/23 to cover rising input costs. In MY 2023/24, Turkish cotton consumption is expected to decrease to 1.7 million MT (7.8 million bales) due to lower demand from end consumers of ready-to-wear-garments in western markets. Cotton imports in MY 2023/24 are forecast to be 900,000 MT (4.13 million bales) for the same period with the U.S. maintaining its market share as the leading supplier with strong competition from Brazil.
Vietnam
Post estimates that Vietnam cotton imports in marketing year 2022/23 (MY 22/23) will decrease at least 5% year on year to nearly 6.3 million bales due to ongoing global low demand for textile and apparel products. U.S. cotton exports to Vietnam significantly dropped in the first half of MY 22/23 and are forecast to plunge to their lowest levels since 2015 due to available and competitively-priced supplies from Australia and Brazil. Australia cotton exports to Vietnam gained a larger market share in the first half of MY 22/23 and continue to grow due to availability, good quality, competitive prices and proximity to Vietnam. Post forecasts Vietnam cotton imports for MY 23/24 will rebound at 5% year on year to 6.6 million bales or over 1.4 million metric tons based on the expectation that demand for cotton yarn will recover by the final months of 2023.
