Today USDA released its Acreage and June 1 Grain Stocks reports. Grain Stocks is the quarterly report showing a count of remaining old crop as of June 1. For corn and soybeans this is what is left over after three quarters of usage. For wheat, which operates on a June 1 – May 31 marketing year, this ends the old crop year. There are no numbers showing old crop production or demand in this report. Changes implied by this report will be reflected on the next WASDE set for July 12. The second report, Acreage, is USDA’s second major farmer survey of the year. 63,700 producers participated in today’s report. Of note for this report, different than the March Prospective Plantings, this report held both a planted and harvested estimate.
Farm Director KC Sheperd spoke with Allendale’s Rich Nelson about the latest numbers for Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, and he said yield may be a discussion point going forward, “Not Major Changes on the planting issue here, especially for the hard red issue where we did see perhaps a bit better harvest acres than expected. I think that will have to come into play these next few weeks, especially as we can further move through harvest. And we’re now also having a more serious discussion regarding yields here.”
Nelson said on the Grain Stocks report wheat exports have had a rough season, “Keep in mind these numbers do include March- April- May very well known poor export sales, and I’ve got to say that also we understand the new crop sales. As an example, Thursday, we saw a record-low new crop sale for that specific week. So no change in the export sales problem. This would have implied surprisingly better feed use in that March, April, May period of all things.”
When it comes to the Acreage report Nelson said the harvest acre totals will be a big discussion point, ” That’s a clear discussion point for us on these issues these next few weeks, maybe not for corn and soybeans in a dramatic issue. What I will say for wheat, the big surprise here for us is USDA dropped the planting numbers by 200,000, which was reasonable for wheat, but they raised the harvested acre estimate by 0.6. So They revised better.”
USDA said farmers planted 94.1 million acres of corn, above the range of pre-report expectations. It’s up 6% from last year, and above USDA’s March Prospective Planting report estimate of 92 million acres. It’s the third highest corn planting since 1944.
On soybeans, acreage is pegged at 83.5 million acres, 5% lower than last year. It’s also below the range of pre-report estimates.
You can also access the full reports here: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
ACREAGE
USDA said farmers planted 94.1 million acres (ma) of corn, above the range of pre-report expectations. It’s up 6% from last year, and above USDA’s March Prospective Planting report estimate of 92 million acres. It’s the third highest corn planting since 1944 and the most since 2013. Harvested acreage, at 86.3 million acres, is also higher than last year.
On soybeans, acreage is pegged at 83.5 million acres, 5% lower than last year and the smallest in three years. It’s also below the range of pre-report estimates.
All-wheat planted area is estimated at 49.6 ma, 9% higher than last year and right in line with pre-report estimates. Winter wheat acreage is up 11% from last year at 37 million acres and, of that, 25.7 ma of it hard red winter wheat, 7.66 ma is soft red winter wheat and 3.68 ma is white winter wheat. Farmers planted spring wheats on 11.1 million acres, with Hard Spring accounting for 10.5 million, as the trade expected.
2022/23: USDA counted June 1 US wheat stocks at 580 million bushels. That was under the 611 trade estimate (ALDL 621). This report wraps up the completed old crop marketing year. The Grain Stocks report is a quarterly count of old crop stocks. For wheat, this now officially ends the old crop year. USDA’s prior estimate for ending stocks on the 6/9 WASDE was 598. With known data on exports, and usually minimal surprises for food use, this implies the feed/residual category in March-May was 70 million bushels over last year at this time.
2023/24: All-wheat planting was revised minimally lower than March to now 49.628. The trade trade estimate was 49.656 (ALDL 49.533). Winter wheat acreage had already been reported on the January Winter Wheat Seedings report and the March Prospective Plantings. Today’s 37.005 million represented a decline of 0.5 from March. This is still sharply over 33.3 last year. The trade, given known planting problems, expected a slight decline to other spring acreage. USDA instead found 557,000 more to now 11.140. Harvested acres may be an area of interest given prior problems in hard red areas. Their 37.722 all-wheat harvested estimate would be over the 37.1 used on the June supply/demand. Wheat pricing has not been tied to the US balance sheet in recent months. This report would be seen as negative to hard red pricing.
Cotton was planted on 11.1 million acres, 19% less than last year.
JUNE 1 GRAIN STOCKS
Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2023, totaled 4.11 billion bushels (bb), down 6% from June 1, 2022. The estimate was below pre-report estimates.
Of the total stocks, 2.22 bb are stored on farms, up 5% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 1.89 bb, are down 15% from a year ago. The March to May 2023 indicated disappearance or usage is 3.29 bb, compared with 3.41 bb during the same period last year.
Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2023, totaled 796 million bushels (mb), down 18% from June 1, 2022. This number is also below pre-report estimates.
On-farm stocks totaled 323 mb, down 3% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 473 mb, are down 26% from a year ago. Indicated usage for the March to May 2023 quarter totaled 891 mb, down 8% from the same period a year earlier.
Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2023, totaled 580 mb, down 17% from a year ago. The wheat estimate comes in at below pre-report estimates.
On-farm stocks are estimated at 124 mb, up 34% from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 456 mb, are down 25% from a year ago. The March to May 2023 indicated usage is 366 mb, up 11% from the same period a year earlier.
Old crop durum wheat stocks in all positions on June 1, 2023, totaled 28.0 mb, up 18% from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 12.8 mb, are up 38% from June 1, 2022.
Off-farm stocks totaled 15.3 mb, up 6% from a year ago. The March to May 2023 indicated usage of 7.77 mb is up 18% from the same period a year earlier.
