The National Ag Statistics Service of USDA has found a lot more wheat in their July Crop production report that almost anyone was expecting in the state of Oklahoma as they jumped the forecast from June to July by over thirty percent. The Kansas crop seems to line up with weather and harvest conditions a lot more as they dropped the production estimate by 17% from a year ago(raising it 8% from June to July).
For the Oklahoma number of 70.2 million bushels- the unknown will be how many acres and how many bushels have been lost since the USDA report was calculated. The July report released on July 12th is as of July 1st information. Since July first- many Oklahoma wheat fields have been soaked with multiple rain storms- making the ground too muddy for combines even as weeds have taken over whole fields in the moist hot conditions. USDA predicts 450,000 more acres will be harvested as of July 1 data versus the June report.
The July estimate is much bigger that the early May Oklahoma Feed and Grain Association predictions– when the crop was estimate by District by District assessments at 65 million bushels- and members of the OGFA guessed just 2 million acres harvested and a dismal 40 million bushel crop. Those numbers were predicted when the crop had received very little rain and the prospects were limited on rain being able to save many fields in the state.
But rains came- and the 2023 harvest has been much later than a year ago- all because of the rains in June as well as July- and that will make the August Crop Production report much more important in calling the size of the 2023 crop. By then- it will be known how many acres in Oklahoma won’t be harvested because of mud and weed pressure. With Kansas more than 30% behind their harvest progress of a year ago in this week’s Crop Progress Report- the August report will also give us a much more accurate picture for the nation’s largest wheat producing state as well.
According to the July first report from USDA- in Oklahoma, winter wheat production is forecast at 70.2 million bushels, up 30.6 percent from the June 1 forecast and up 2.3 percent from 2022. As of July 1, Oklahoma’s yield is forecast at 27 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from last month, but down 1 bushel from last year’s average yield of 28 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 2.6 million acres, up 21 percent from the June 1 forecast and up 6 percent from last year.
KANSAS:
In Kansas, winter wheat production is forecast at 208 million bushels, up 8.67 percent from the June 1 forecast and down 17.4 percent from 2022. As of July 1, the Kansas yield is forecast at 32 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from last month, but down 5 bushels from last year’s average yield of 37 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 6.5 million acres, down 1.5 percent from the June 1 forecast and last year.
TEXAS:
In Texas, winter wheat production is forecast at 64 million bushels, up 6.7 percent from the June 1 forecast and up 64.1 percent from 2022. As of July 1, the Texas yield is forecast at 32 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from last month and last year’s average yield of 30 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 2 million acres, unchanged from the June 1 forecast and up 53.8 percent from last year.
Nationally in the July USDA Crop Production Report- U.S. winter wheat production is forecast at 1.21 billion bushels, up 6 percent from the June 1 forecast and 9 percent from 2022. As of July 1, the United States yield is forecast at 46.9 bushels per acre, up 2.0 bushels from last month but down 0.1 bushel from last year’s average yield of 47.0 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.7 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2023, but up 10 percent from last year.
View the July 1 Crop Production report below:
