As drought continues to play a big role in factors impacting the beef cattle sector in many states, Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster, Ron Hays, is back talking with Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, Dr. Derrell Peel, about drought conditions in the top beef cattle states.
While Texas and Oklahoma’s drought conditions are now seeing improvements year-over-year, Missouri and Kansas are facing conditions that are worse than a year ago.
Oklahoma is now at 23 percent moderate drought or worse, down from a year ago at 62 percent. In Texas, moderate drought or worse is at 31 percent, down from last year’s 93 percent.
This year, Missouri is facing 81 percent moderate drought or worse, versus last year’s percentage of 40 percent. Kansas is currently facing 82 percent moderate drought or worse, versus last year’s percent of 47 percent.
Peel said while drought is better in Texas and Oklahoma, those conditions in other major beef cow states might hinder the rebuilding of the cow herd.
“We have still got drought in Kansas, parts of Missouri, and parts of Nebraska,” Peel said. “You know, the question from the broader market is if we have reduced that overall drought picture nationally to a point where drought is not really driving the overall cattle numbers as much, certainly for producers that are caught in that.”
It looks to me like we are at a point now where the overall, for example, cow culling numbers might not reflect the impact of the drought nationally so much as it has in the past,” Peel said. “Now, I say that. We haven’t really seen that yet.”
Beef cow slaughter, Peel said, is down this year about 12 percent on a year-over-year basis, which is a sharp drop from last year.
“In terms of stopping liquidation and stabilizing this cow herd, it really needs to drop more than that,” Peel said. “I think we have to watch the data here for the next few months to see when we sort of reach that point and transition into that situation from a national market standpoint.”
The number three beef cow state in America, Missouri, is currently the worst spot in the country when it comes to pasture and range ratings. The latest pasture and range ratings for Missouri put the state in 71 percent poor to very poor conditions and only four percent in good condition, according to USDA.
“We have seen so many dynamics this year,” Peel said. “The prices are higher, the markets are beginning to send those signals that we probably are smaller than we need to be, that we need to rebuild some, and so there is that.”
Depending on the location, Peel said some producers are going to start thinking about proactively planning to move forward with rebuilding.
“We have got a lot of strong markets ahead of us, not only for this year but for the next couple of years as we go forward,” Peel said. “So, I think producers are maybe in a position now to really start doing a little more planning and being a little more proactive on how they want to approach this market going forward.”
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