At the Cattle Industry Summer Business Meeting, Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster, Ron Hays, caught up with the CEO of CattleFax, Randy Blach. Blach talks with Hays about rebuilding the U.S. cow herd.
Our coverage from the 2023 Cattle Industry Summer Business Meeting in San Diego is being powered by Farm Data Services of Stillwater.
Looking at the latest Cattle Inventory Report released by USDA, Blach said the July beef cow numbers are the smallest on record going back to around 1970.
“Beef cow slaughter is down about 700,000 head in 2023, but that is still a liquidation pace,” Blach said. “When you think about where we have gone and how much we have downsized, we have got to see beef cow slaughter drop further than that to actually get us back into expansion.”
As an industry, Black said cow liquidation and heifer retention have not begun in large fashion yet, but it is coming. Blach added that he could see producers retaining females from this current calf crop.
“With calf prices this much above the cost of production, we will start retaining,” Blach said.
The rate of expansion will be interesting, Blach said, with interest rates where they are today.
“That by itself is going to be a limiting factor,” Blach said. “Again, just the cost. The access, the capital to be able to expand- that will be an issue, and some of these areas, we haven’t fully got over the hump with the drought.”
While many places are doing better than this time last year moisture-wise, Blach said many are still suffering. With high input costs matched with high cattle prices, Blach said risk management will become increasingly important.
“As we go forward, we have got to make sure we are managing enough risk in here that if we catch one of these Black Swan events, it doesn’t take us out,” Blach said.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
