Statewide Discussion: While most of Oklahoma did receive rainfall in the last 10 days. Some areas received well over 1.5”
while others did not accumulate wetting amounts. Many locations are now 7 days separated from wetting rain while extreme northwest, parts of southwest and some western counties are now 22-30 days separated. Fire danger in recent days has been moderated although the current warming trend and dry conditions has elevated concern especially in the Panhandle and western counties.
Today: A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from Noon through this evening for the Oklahoma Panhandle and parts of northwestern Oklahoma. Critical fire weather will slide into the Warned Area as a dryline pushes east ahead of a cold front driving in tonight. Above normal temperatures combined with relative humidity values below 20% and strengthening winds over receptive fuels will promote potential for enhanced fire behavior this afternoon and evening. Of note, fuels have not experienced a hard freeze. Remaining live fuel moisture will serve as a heat sink providing some
moderation in fire behavior. Conditions are expected to improve gradually into the overnight hours as the dryline retreats; however post-frontal winds remain elevated. Rain chances with the cold front are generally confined to northeastern Oklahoma.
• Warned Area: As a dryline pushes east this afternoon, warm/dry/breezy conditions over receptive fuels will support
potential for increased initial attack activity and some large fire potential. Significant fire occurrence probability remains
low, and new fire occurrence is generally expected to be captured within an operational period. Temperatures
76°(Cimarron County) to 90° (NW OK) under clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values 10-21% will yield finedead fuel moisture values tapping 3%. Energy Release Component values are generally less than 70% translating to
moderate resistance to control. Southerly winds this morning will become southwest to west this afternoon/evening
sustained 21-30 mph with gusts 30-45 mph. Rangeland fuels in the Warned Area will yield head fire rates of spread 160-
240 ft/min (+/- 2.3 mph). A Canadian front will push into the area tonight with winds shifting to the northwest in the early
morning hours.
• Southwestern/Western Oklahoma: Drought stressed fuels have exhibited resistance to recovery following recent rainfall in some areas and continue to be very receptive exhibiting active fire behavior. High fire danger indices are expected today as above-normal temperatures in the upper-80°s to low-90°s develop with relative humidity values 13-29% under clearing skies yielding 3-4% fine-dead fuel moisture. Southwesterly winds sustained 16-23 mph gusting 24-30 mph will support rates of spread 124-215 ft/min (+/-1.9 mph) in rangeland fuels.
• Central & Eastern Oklahoma: East of the dryline, afternoon relative humidity values will struggle to fall below 35% with
most locations remaining at or above 45% limiting development of concerning fine-dead fuel moisture values. Although
probability of ignition will be low, any fire that starts will have potential to exhibit erratic fire behavior in unsheltered fuels. Temperatures in the 80°s under gradually clearing skies with afternoon relative humidity values averaging +40% will hold fine-dead fuel moisture at 7%+. Southerly winds will be strongest north of I-44 where sustained 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph are likely. Grass dominated fuels will exhibit muted fire behavior with rates of spread on established fires generally less than 120 ft/min. As the cold front arrives overnight, some rain chances develop with the highest probability confined to northeast Oklahoma.
Near-Term: The immediate post-frontal environment will bring elevated wind speeds into Friday although cooler temperatures and improved relative humidity values will set back overall fire danger. Dry conditions will dominate the near-term forecast, but again temperatures remain below-normal through the weekend and respectable overnight moisture recovery will stall development of the burning period on a daily basis through the weekend.
Burn Bans:
