Wheat producers attending the recent Rural Economic Outlook Conference at Oklahoma State University heard forecasts for markets and weather, both of which indicated upside potential in the year ahead.
At the moment, fall planting conditions vary widely across the state.
“We just got our wheat in,” said Jordan Shearer, a farmer and loan officer from Shattuck who attended the conference. “In our area, we’ve got good prospects for wheat pasture for the first time in three years.”
Fred Schmedt, a certified seed grower from Ardmore, said he hadn’t even considered getting out the drill.
“We’re terribly dry,” he said.
That could change by the end of the year, according to TV meteorologist and agricultural weather consultant Brian Bledsoe, a conference presenter from Colorado Springs.
“Be prepared for a little snow and maybe a lot of snow,” he said in his weather outlook.
“One month that continues to show up for me in the weather models is the month of December,” he said. “We could see storms coming out of the Southwest and lighting things up in the central part of the country.”
That’s based on an unusual set-up, in which the El Nino climate pattern, driven by warmer-than-usual waters in the Pacific, coincides with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Going back through historical records, Bledsoe could find only one winter — 1972-1973 — when those two patterns converged. “It was frigid,” he said.
The negative PDO, which has been in place since 1998, generally correlates with dry conditions across the south and the west.
El Nino, however, typically brings a more active storm track, which is most pronounced in the winter, Bledsoe said.
Most models show wet weather lingering into the spring, with the impact fading by the end of next year.
“Expect to get precipitation early in the year and drier conditions later in the year,” he said.
After hearing the presentation, Schmedt said he felt more motivated to get the crop planted sooner rather than later.
Late planting of wheat is not unusual in his area, he said, in part because it typically follows a fall cotton crop and also because fewer cattle are running on wheat pasture these days.
“In our part of the world, we sow a lot of wheat in December after the cotton harvest stops. If we sow it too early, it consumes whatever moisture you’ve got,” he said.
His part of the state is coming off an abundant harvest. Some of the certified seed grown in the area was transferred up to Alva to help address seed deficits in the northwest region.
“We had more crop than we had storage for,” Schmedt said.
Roger Fischer, a farmer from Chattanooga, said last year some of his yields hit 66 bushels to the acre, with beneficial rain falling in certain areas. He was able to save back enough seed for planting, after investing in certified seed the previous year.
So far, he’s dusted in some wheat but was running behind schedule on fall planting.
“This will be my 47th crop,” he said. “One thing I’ve learned is you can’t make a good crop without the inputs. With reports like we heard today, we’ll be giving it plenty of fertilizer and rolling the dice.”
In Northwest Oklahoma, improved planting conditions are helping to take some of the sting out of a disastrous year.
Shearer’s family lost their wheat crop and came within two weeks of liquidating their entire cowherd before rain finally arrived late last spring.
“We had 25 inches between May first and mid-July,” he said.
By late summer, it had turned hot and dry again.
“One of the local farmers told me he never thought he’d see a year where you could lose a wheat crop, get 25 inches of rain and then have the sorghum burn up,” Shearer said.
Higher profit margins on cattle could help the region recover. During the conference, OSU livestock marketing specialist Derrell Peel said record high cattle prices are likely to continue for at least two more years due to historically low cattle numbers.
“We’ve seen a tremendous uptrend in feeder prices,” he said. “Fed prices are at record levels and still moving higher.”
“Running stockers on wheat pasture has potential,” he added, “if we can get the wheat up and going, but that’s a challenge.”
Grain prices, on the other hand, have been disappointing in recent weeks. Still, OSU’s grain marketing specialist Kim Anderson said farmers are likely to see future pricing opportunities and upward rallies, since world ending stocks are relatively tight and disruptions are ongoing in Russia, Ukraine and other parts of the globe.
USDA has projected next year’s average wheat price at $6.20 a bushel.
Karen Jones, of Waukomis, another producer attending the meeting, said she was busy planting wheat behind fall crops and hoping for the best.
In addition to wheat, she’s also planted about a quarter of her fall acreage to canola. She currently serves on the board of the U.S. Canola Association.
“I’m not sure if it will make a crop or not,” she said. “There’s not enough moisture right now to get it up. If we get an early freeze, that could take it out too.”
Jones estimated statewide canola plantings will be back on pace with 2021, after being zeroed out by adverse weather conditions last year.
Reviving wheat
Several conference speakers and attendees took note of the long-term downward trend in wheat acres.
According to Anderson, wheat acres declined almost by half since 1982, from 8 million to 4.5 million acres. During the same period, corn and soybean acres doubled, and pasture, range and hay land increased by around a third.
That concerns Roger Fischer, because he believes wheat’s adaptability makes it a great fit for the state.
“I’ve been no-till for 25 years,” he said. “It fits well with wheat, especially in a cotton rotation.”
The declining wheat acres also caught the attention of Scott Senseman, OSU’s associate vice president of research and director of the Ag Experiment Station.
With more future investment and support, he believes OSU’s wheat improvement team is in an ideal position to remedy that.
“It’s impressive to see what they’ve done with what they’ve had to work with,” he said citing outdated greenhouses and labs. “Hopefully we’ll be able to help support their work with a new agronomy facility. The initial idea was brought forth six years ago, but now we’re looking at adding a phenotyping facility, which wasn’t in the mix back then.”
Phenotyping refers to the use of highly advanced cameras, which collect and process large amounts of imagery on a continual basis, allowing breeders to detect promising varieties earlier in development.
An investment in new facilities would not only support current research but also attract the best and brightest agronomists in the future, he said.
“We want any new facility to be about advancement not just replacement,” he said.
According to Fischer, another boost could come from a new marketing initiative by OSU, Oklahoma Genetics Inc. and marketing firm Farm Strategy that is looking at adding value to the state’s wheat crop by segregating new varieties with exceptional flour milling characteristics.
“I think it’s a really interesting project,” he said. “I think it’s a path we should go down. Anything we can do to encourage more wheat production. Wheat is so adaptable to our region, and it needs to be in our rotation.”
OSU’s new vice president and dean of agriculture Jason Lusk said during his luncheon remarks value-added development was one of the university’s top priorities.
“We have a lot of opportunity to add value in Oklahoma,” he said. “The wheat improvement team in particular is doing lots of interesting things right now on the consumer end of things.”
(Article courtesy of Candace Krebs, OK Genetics)
