At the 2023 Agricultural Bankers Conference, Farm Director KC Sheperd had the opportunity to visit with Texas A&M Professor and Extension Specialist for Cotton Management, John Robinson. Sheperd and Robinson talked about the condition of the cotton crop.
Robinson first talked about what he has seen through Texas.
“Definitely, the sentiment for ’23 was tied to the wipeout of ’22 and whether ’23 would make up for it,” Robinson said. “In most cases, I would say it did not.”
From an analyst standpoint, Robinson said it was a challenging year because there was a lot of dryland cotton that germinated and was a standing crop but ended up being plowed.
“It was unusual that it would be up there all year and was probably counted by USDA and several of their supply and demand counts and calculations,” Robinson said. “It ended up being plowed up late in the year because there wasn’t enough yield on it.”
In places that it is possible, Robinson said, in Texas, there are some cotton producers that have switched to corn in previous years.
“Corn has a lot of water demand, and Texas is a dry place, but in years where there is enough moisture to plant, and expectations of a normal, rainy type of year, we have seen corn production expand along the gulf coast and in parts of the state where they have reliable irrigation,” Robinson said.
On the other hand, Robinson said some regions have been switching from corn to cotton due to lack of moisture. Not to mention, Robinson said the price of producing cotton compared to corn is another big factor in a farmer’s decision of which to grow.
Looking into 2024, Robinson talked about what prices are suggesting for planting.
“Using the models that I use, they are predicting that we will probably end up planting, nationwide, about 11 to 11.5 million acres of cotton,” Robinson said. “That is based on the relative price of cotton to corn.”
If we do plant 11 to 11.5 (million acres) and we have decent El Nino over the winter, which we are forecasted to, Robinson said this suggests there may be more supply this year than the last couple of years.
“Unless demand picks up more strongly, that suggests to me we might have a little bit higher ending stocks,” Robinson said. “As ending stocks get higher or heavier, usually that implies a little bit more weakness in price.”
