The USDA released the Winter Wheat Seedings report which contained estimates of 2024 winter wheat planted acres. Pryor to the report, market analysts estimated 2024 hard red winter (HRW) wheat planted acres 2.4% lower (25.1 million acres (ma) vs. 25.7 ma) than was planted for the 2023 crop. Soft red winter wheat planted acres were estimated to be 4% lower (7.077 ma vs. 7.36 ma).
USDA’s January Winter Wheat Seedings Estimate was 34.4 ma which is 6% less than for the 2023 crop and 2% lower than the market’s prerelease estimate.
USDA’s HRW seedings estimate was 24 ma which was 7% less than last year and 2% below the prerelease estimate.
The SRW seedings estimate was 6.86 ma which was 7% less than for the 2023 crop and 4% less than the prerelease estimate.
The Seedings Report should be positive for wheat prices. One because the planted acres were below expectations and two, because U.S. and world wheat stocks are relatively tight.
The January WASDE report lowered HRW wheat 2023/24 wheat marketing year ending stocks 10 million bushels (mb) to 274 mb. Over the last 10-years, U.S. HRW wheat ending stocks have average 421 mb. The ending stocks estimate should also support higher wheat prices.
For the period 2009 through 2023, the average Oklahoma June, July and August wheat price has been $5.85. With below average ending stocks, wheat prices are expected to be above average.
The initial July 2024 HRW wheat futures contract price reaction to the reports was to decline $0.11 cents. The price decline could have partially been due to projected export increases from Australia, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. All these countries wheat exports compete directly with U.S. HRW wheat exports. Projected U.S. 2023/24 HRW wheat exports were unchanged.
The major determinant of U.S. 2024 HRW wheat prices will be harvested acres and yield (production). Weather will determine production.
