Below is an analysis of the latest movements in the commodity markets from OSU Crop Marketing Specialist Kim Anderson:
Wheat and corn prices fell 15 cents, and soybeans fell 30 cents this week. On Thursday, the current cash wheat price in Pond Creek Oklahoma was $5.53 and wheat could be forward contracted for 2024 harvest delivery in Pond Creed and the Panhandle for $5.55. Panhandle and southern Oklahoma current cash wheat prices were 25 to 30 cents lower than the current Pond Creek price.
Corn prices fell about 15 cents with the current Pond Creek price being $4.30 and the 2024 harvest forward contact price being $4.52. Corn prices are higher in the Panhandle and about the same in southern Oklahoma.
Soybean Price fell about 30 cents with the current cash price being $11.54 and the 2024 harvest forward contract price is $11.14.
Both wheat and corn 2024 harvest prices are below the 15-year Oklahoma average. In Pond Creek, wheat may be forward contracted for harvest deliver for $5.55. The 15-year average Pond Creed wheat harvest price is $5.83.
Wheat stocks-to-use ratios (ending stocks divided by use) support average wheat prices. The stocks-to-use ratio for U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat is projected to be 48% compared to a 15-year average of 50%. The stocks-to-use ratio for world wheat is projected to be 33% compared to a 15-year average of 34%.
Corn stocks-to-use ratios support below average prices. Corn may be forward contacted for 2024 harvest delivery for $4.52 compared to a 15-year average of $4.70.
The stocks-to-use ratio for U.S. corn is projected to be 15% compared to a 15-year average of 11.5%. For the world, corn’s stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 26% compared to a 15-year average of 24%.
Soybeans may be forward contracted for 2024 harvest delivery in Pond Creek for $11.14 compared to a 15-year average of $10.80.
The stocks-to-use ratios for soybeans provide mixed signals. The stocks-to-use ratio for U.S. soybeans is projected to be 5.9% compared to a 15-year average of 7.4%.
The world soybean stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 28% compared to a 15-year average of 27%. The U.S. implies above average prices and the world soybean stocks-to-use ratio implies average prices.
