There is a new blog post out at the Southern Plains Perspective. The Southern Plains Perspective is authored by Clay Pope- who farms with his wife Sarah. Read Below!
If you follow the weather news (and if you live in Oklahoma and the Southern Plains you should) you already know that since about mid-summer we have been in a El Niño weather pattern. For those of you who don’t know, El Niño is a climate phenomenon that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming causes a shift in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. It impacts ocean temperatures, the speed and strength of ocean currents and causes the low-level surface trade winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator, to either weaken or start blowing from the other direction.
This change generally results in cooler than normal temperatures across the Southern Plains with higher amounts of precipitation, especially during the fall and winter. The impact of El Niño generally hits harder the further south you are. Because of this, how much this phenomenon actually effects Oklahoma and North Texas really depends on how strong the El Niño turns out to be.
This is important because since at least last April experts have been warning that we could be looking at the development of a “Super El Niño” due to the higher than normal sea temperatures at the surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Basically what they are saying is that because this weather pattern develops with the warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean this El Niño could be stronger than normal since the water was already warmer to start with.
Now fast forward to this past December, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) came out with its latest prediction that says there is now a 54% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño during this winter season, potentially resulting in one of the five strongest El Niño events since 1950. For a point of reference, the last “Super El Niño” we had was in 2015. If you remember that far back, May 2015 was the wettest month EVER recorded in Oklahoma and Texas.
So are we heading for a super “Super El Niño?” Maybe, maybe not. A 54% chance for such an event means we have a 46% chance that it won’t happen. On top of that some experts are calling for El Niño to play out early this spring and possibly switch over to a La Niña by late 2024. La Niña would result in the opposite of El Niño with higher temperatures and below normal precipitation in our part of the world. As a reminder, we just came out of a rare “triple dip” La Niña pattern last spring. This means that we had three years in a row of hot, dry conditions before we moved into our current weather pattern. The end of El Niño could also mean that we move into a neutral pattern in the Pacific, what Oklahoma State Climatologist Gary McManus sometimes refers to as the “La Nada” pattern.
Then what’s on the horizon? Is it Super El Niño, La Niña or La Nada? You can’t say for certain—we all know that weather conditions can change. But regardless of what happens, it’s probably a good bet that we are looking at more extreme weather.
Now wild weather is not unusual for Oklahoma and the Southern Plains. What we need to keep in mind though is that we are dealing with a changing climate; and what climate change means for our region is that the crazy weather we have always had is getting shot full of steroids.
The droughts will be longer and hotter; the rains will be heavier and more violent; wildfires will be more likely and we can look forward to crazy winter events like a polar vortex, ice storms and blizzards. We have had these things before—now we will have them in spades.
That’s why it’s so important that we put some thought into planning for extreme weather. We need to harden our farms, ranches and communities to better ride through what mother nature is going to throw our way.
Will Rogers once said, “If you don’t like the weather in Oklahoma, wait a minute.” That statement is true now more than ever. We need to stay mindful of how extreme our weather can be-remember, it can change on a dime.
