Not Much Movement in Oklahoma’s Drought Numbers After Last Week’s Large Improvements

To view the latest Oklahoma drought map, CLICK HERE.

According to the latest Oklahoma drought monitor report, exceptional drought remains at zero percent, unchanged from the start of the calendar year.

Extreme drought or worse remains at zero percent, unchanged from the past six weeks.

Severe drought or worse remains at 1.36 percent, unchanged from last week.

Moderate drought or worse conditions remain at 7.18 percent, unchanged from last week.

Abnormally dry or worse conditions are now at 21.8 percent, improved slightly from last week’s 22.45 percent.

According to the 6-to-10-day precipitation outlook map, the northeastern part of Oklahoma is leaning below a 33 to 40 percent chance of precipitation through February 17th. The northern part of the panhandle, down through central Oklahoma and into the southeast corner, is at a “near normal” chance of precipitation through February 17th. The southwestern part of the state and the southern half of the panhandle is leaning above a 33 to 40 percent chance of precipitation through that February 17th date.

To view the United States Drought Map, click here.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Summary, last week, a strong Pacific storm system brought flooding rains to California and heavy snow to the mountain ranges of Northern California and the Sierra Nevada. Parts of the state saw nearly a foot of rain from this storm, breaking long-standing records. Moisture from this system also brought rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest and inland regions of the West. Most states in the region saw pockets of improvement despite the heaviest precipitation missing many of the West’s persistent drought areas. Another round of showers and thunderstorms passed through the South and Southeast. In the last two weeks, rainfall totals of more than 10 inches fell in parts of East Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The excess rain brought one and two category improvements to drought. The Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Northeast stayed relatively dry, with well above normal temperatures last week. Concerns continue to grow over the lack of snow this season.

In the Southern Plains, another round of wet weather brought more than 3 inches of rain to parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Totals less than 0.25 inches fell in parts of Tennessee and Texas. The continued wet weather left parts of Alabama with 200 to more than 400% of normal rainfall for the last two weeks. Much of the state saw 1- and 2-category improvements to drought conditions. While the drought developed rapidly over the summer, improvements are slower to happen. Rainfall deficits of more than 10 inches over the last six months remain over parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Streamflow, groundwater levels, and deeper soil moisture also remain historically low for this time of year. The fact that drought signals are still present shows how dry it was during earlier months.

In the High Plains, temperatures averaged about 8 to more than 20 degrees above normal. Precipitation of less than 0.25 inches fell across much of the Dakotas, eastern Nebraska, and southwest Kansas. The rest of the region recorded totals ranging from about 0.25 inches to just over 1 inch. Moderate drought (D1) improved in eastern South Dakota in response to above normal precipitation during the month of January. South-central Nebraska and northern and central Kansas also saw 1-category improvements to long-term drought areas. While short-term moisture deficits have largely been eliminated, a dry signal remains at timescales longer than about 6 months. Precipitation deficits of nearly 10 inches over the last year remain in drought areas in these states and impacts to deeper soil moisture levels and groundwater continue to linger.

In the West, strong storm system brought flooding rains to California and heavy snow to the mountain ranges of Northern California. Parts of the state recorded totals of 10 to 15 inches during the week, more than 600% of normal (for the same 7-day period). Moisture from this system also brought rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest and inland regions of the West. Outside of California, precipitation mostly totaled less than 3 inches. Pockets of improvements occurred in Idaho and western Montana, where recent precipitation has helped reduce drought signals in the short and longer terms. Central Arizona, the Four Corners region, and Colorado also saw improvements. A lack of snow in eastern Montana and western North Dakota led to the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0).

Looking ahead, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center forecast (valid February 7 – 10, 2024) calls for another round of rainfall to sweep across California and into the Desert Southwest. High elevation snow is expected over mountains in the West with a wintry mix (freezing rain, sleet, and snow) over the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Heading into the weekend, the extended forecast (valid February 10 – 14, 2024) calls for a band of heavy rain across the South and Southeast. High temperatures are expected remain above average across central and eastern parts of the country. The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-to-10-day outlook (valid February 13 – 17, 2024) calls for an increased probability that observed temperatures, averaged over this 7-day period, will be above normal across the Upper Midwest, the west Coast, and Alaska. Temperatures across the remaining parts of the country are expected to be near to below normal. The pattern of increased precipitation across California and the southern tier of the continental U.S. (CONUS) is expected to continue, while much of the remaining CONUS, eastern Alaska, and the Big Island of Hawaii are expected to have below or near-normal precipitation.

To view the 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook Map, click here.

To view the 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook Map, click here.

To view the Monthly Drought Outlook Map, click here.

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