Statewide Discussion: Warm and dry conditions will dominate the forecast this week, although looming fire danger concern will remain largely at bay with the lack of strong, fire-effective weather systems. Initial attack activity is expected to increase although large fire activity potential is limited given good composite fuel moisture values and the lack of critical fire weather. Private land and agency prescribed fire implementation is likely to increase this week with favorable conditions forecasted.
Today: A weak cold front will dip into Oklahoma from the north this morning and may spur some very light precipitation in the far northern counties. That front will stall out along the I-35 corridor with northerly winds west and southerly winds east. Afternoon relative humidity values will remain above 30% over the bulk of the state reserving the drier air for the Panhandle and western tier counties. Overall, new wildfires will exhibit moderate for season fire behavior offering good opportunity for successful initial attack efforts. As the front settles across the area, northwest winds sustained 8-14 mph with some higher gusts should be expected thisafternoon.
• Oklahoma Panhandle/Western Tier Counties – Following a cool start and good overnight moisture recovery,
temperature will rebound into the low-60°’s (NW/PH) to the upper-60°’s further south along the OK/TX border. Warm
conditions under mostly-clear skies and afternoon relative humidity values 16%-26% will yield fine-dead fuel moisture
values at 5% with some 4% observations in the western Panhandle counties. As the front settles across the area,
northwest winds sustained 8-14 mph with some higher gusts should be expected this afternoon. During peak burning
conditions, rangeland fuels will support head fire rates of spread 95-140 ft/min with flame lengths 9-11 ft. Winds will settle overnight while becoming southerly by morning.
• Western Oklahoma – Warmer temperatures under mostly clear skies and a dry forecast will support moderate fire danger with initial attack efforts most likely successful. Temperature will warm into the low- to mid-60°’s under mostly-clear to clear skies. Relative humidity values this afternoon will register around 25% west to 36% nearer to I-35 yielding fine-dead fuel moisture values 5-6%. Winds will be somewhat gusty this morning becoming northwest this afternoon sustained 10- 14 mph with some higher gusts. Grass-dominated fuels will exhibit head fire rates of spread 90-125 ft/min with flame lengths 9-11 ft. fire danger will relax into the evening hours supporting successful initial attack efforts.
• Along & East of I-35: The front that will bring northwest winds to western Oklahoma this afternoon will stall along I-35
holding southerly winds in place this afternoon sustained 9-15 mph with some higher gusts late afternoon. Temperature
will warm into the low- to mid-60°’s under mostly-clear skies with relative humidity values 30-39% yielding fine-dead fuel
moisture values at 6% across most of the area and 7% observations further north. Grass-dominated fuels will exhibit head fire rates of spread 90-130 ft/min with flame lengths 12-15 ft. in areas with heavy fuel loading. ROS in lighter grass loading 60-85 ft/min. Timber-litter will exhibit ROS 13-20 ft/min with FL 3-5 ft.
Near-Term: A warming trend into midweek will support increasing fire danger although critical fire weather/fuels thresholds are not likely to be met. Initial attack activity is expected to be successful. A few large fires cannot be ruled out although significant fire potential will remain very low. Prescribed burning and controlled burning activities are expected to increase this week given good conditions for effective burning. Of note, we are keeping an eye on the potential for elevated fire danger concern on Wednesday preceding a cold front on Thursday. Again, forecast data does not suggest critical fire weather and composite fuel moisture remains elevated suppressing potential. Overall, dry conditions will persist through the week and into the weekend. Further out, a pattern change next week may support some precipitation chances.
Burn Bans: (None currently in effect)
