Statewide Discussion: Very dry conditions yesterday across much of Oklahoma resulted in a noticeable uptick in initial attack activity as single digit Rh’s in western Oklahoma, very warm temperatures and some breezy conditions developed ahead of a predominantly dry cold front. That cold front will continue to push across Oklahoma from the northwest today with dry conditions continuing. Some wetting rain occurred in far northeastern Oklahoma overnight while the rest of the state remained dry and will continue with dry conditions through the weekend and early next week driving persistent and increasing fire danger concern.
Today: Temperature will be noticeably cooler across most of Oklahoma as a cold front continues to progress. Southeastern Oklahoma will remain very warm with the frontal boundary not reaching the area until later this afternoon. Behind the frontal boundary, however, winds will increase in intensity with some gusts around 30 mph this afternoon. Fortunately, afternoon relative humidity values will hold above the critical threshold and not nearly as dry as was observed yesterday.
• Oklahoma Panhandle/Northwestern Oklahoma- Given cooler temperatures and respectable overnight moisture
recovery, the active burning period will be delayed and shorter in duration than yesterday. Temperatures around 60° to
64°under mostly clear skies and afternoon relative humidity values 28-34% will yield fine-dead fuel moisture values at 6% (much improved over yesterday). North winds sustained 13-21 with some gusts around 30 mph will support moderate to rapid rates of fire spread this afternoon. Rangeland fuels will exhibit head fire rates of spread 115-170 ft/min and flame
lengths 10-13 ft. In areas where much heavier than normal herbaceous loading is present, expect ROS to be nearer to
195 ft/min.
• Western Oklahoma – Cooler temperature today with highs topping out in the mid-60°’s north to 72° along the Red River. Clear skies will be present today although relative humidity values will only tap the 29-38% range holding fine-dead fuel moisture at 6% with some 7% observations nearer to I-35. Post-frontal north winds sustained 18-23 mph with some gusts topping 30 mph, rapid rates of fire spread are possible on fully established wildfires. Rangeland fuels will support head fire rates of spread 158-187 ft/min with flame lengths around 12 ft.
• Central/Northeastern Oklahoma: A noticeable uptick in fire activity will result in a number of resources committed to
mopping up and holding control lines from yesterday. As the cold front progresses south and east, winds will switch
clockwise to the northwest by this afternoon. Temperatures will top out at 68°-74°under mostly-clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values generally around 35% yielding fine-dead fuel moisture values teetering between 6% and 7%. The post frontal winds will be northerly sustained 13-20 mph with higher gusts. Grass-dominated fuels will support potential for rapid rates of fire spread on fully established fires as head fire rates of spread 115-175 ft/min are likely with flame lengths +15 ft. Timber-litter will exhibit ROS 20-25 ft/min with FL 3.5-6 ft.
• Southeastern Oklahoma: The cold front will likely reach southeastern Oklahoma during peak burning conditions.
Firefighters are reminded to be aware of the approaching front and associated clockwise shift in winds from southerly to
northerly placing emphasis on securing the south and east flanks of going wildfires. Temperatures will warm into the mid70°’s to near 80° prior to the front arriving with afternoon relative humidity values 32-37% yielding fine-dead fuel moisture at 6% during peak burning conditions. Following the front, northerly winds sustained 11-18 mph gusting above 20 mph will drive moderate to rapid rates of fire spread. Mixed fuels (Timber/Grass) will exhibit head fire rates of spread 44-65 ft/min with flame lengths 7-11 ft. Expect some problematic fire behavior in the mix as well.
Near-Term: Dry conditions will hold fire danger in place throughout the week and into the weekend. Southwesterly winds return Saturday coupled with another warming trend that will support increasing fire danger into the Monday/Tuesday timeframe ahead of another, stronger, cold front. Monday and Tuesday, initially appear to be concerning with temperatures well-above normal and stout southwest winds ushering in very dry air again.
Burn Bans: (None currently in effect) Refer to: bit.ly/OKBans for the most current burn ban information and links to specific burn ban proclamations.
