To view the latest Oklahoma drought map, CLICK HERE.
According to the latest Oklahoma drought monitor report, exceptional drought remains at zero percent, unchanged from the start of the calendar year.
Extreme drought or worse remains at zero percent, unchanged from the past eight weeks.
Severe drought or worse is unchanged from last week’s .19 percent.
Moderate drought or worse is unchanged from last week’s 3.23 percent.
Abnormally dry or worse conditions are unchanged from last week’s 16.61 percent.
According to the 6-to-10-day precipitation outlook map, the western part of the panhandle and the eastern half of the state are both standing at a near-normal percent chance of precipitation through March 2. The eastern side of the panhandle and the central part of the state, including western Oklahoma, is leaning below a 33 to 40 percent chance of precipitation through March 2.
To view the United States Drought Map, click here.
According to the latest U.S. Drought Summary, an atmospheric river of Pacific storm systems slammed parts of the West Coast with heavy precipitation during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (February 14-20). The weather systems dried out as they crossed the western mountains, then produced anemic precipitation amounts east of the Rockies. Parts of the Midwest and Northeast received limited precipitation amounts from passing cold fronts, and heavier rain fell along the Texas coast and across Florida from another frontal system, but much of the country east of the Rockies, as well as the southwestern U.S., received little to no precipitation. The weather systems distorted the upper-level circulation over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), which otherwise consisted of a high-pressure ridge over western North America and a low-pressure trough over the east. The end result of this distortion was a temperature anomaly pattern that consisted of warmer-than-normal weekly temperatures in the Upper Midwest and parts of the interior West, and below-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, Rockies, and southern tier states, with near-normal temperatures elsewhere. An upper-level ridge over the Caribbean brought generally dry and warmer-than-normal weather to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while ridges also kept Alaska mostly drier and warmer than normal and Hawaii drier than normal this week. Drought or abnormal dryness expanded or intensified this week in parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, Rio Grande Valley, eastern North Carolina, and much of Hawaii. Drought or abnormal dryness contracted or reduced in intensity in parts of the Four Corners states and Lower Mississippi Valley.
In the Southern Plains, half an inch or more of precipitation fell across parts of the Texas coast, and there were a few areas of up to half an inch of precipitation in Arkansas and Tennessee, but otherwise the South region received no precipitation this week. D0 and D1 were expanded in west Texas along the Rio Grande Valley to reflect dry conditions over the last 7 days to 3 months, low streams, drying soils, and stressed vegetation indicated by satellite. D0 was contracted in South Texas and D1 contracted slightly in central Texas (Bell County). No change was made in Oklahoma, where reservoir levels remain historically low. A reassessment of conditions resulted in the removal of the D3 (extreme drought) and trimming of D2 in northwest Mississippi, trimming of D0-D1 in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, and trimming of D0 in Tennessee. Precipitation is near to above normal in these areas for the last 1 to 4 months, streamflow is near to above normal, and surface soil moisture has been recharged. In Louisiana, stock ponds mostly refilled. The remaining D0-D2 is sufficient to reflect the longer-term dryness which shows up most severely at the 6- to 12-month time scales.
In the High Plains, half an inch to locally 2 inches of precipitation fell this week over the Colorado mountains into adjacent Wyoming, and over western Wyoming. A band of precipitation extended across South Dakota, with locally up to half an inch falling. Otherwise, the High Plains region received little to no precipitation. D0 was expanded in the Dakotas, and D1 expanded in North Dakota, where the last 3 months have been dry and the lack of snow cover has exposed bare ground. D0 and D1 were adjusted in north central and southwest Colorado where recent precipitation resulted in local improvements and continued dryness caused local expansion. D2 was introduced in north central and northeastern Wyoming.
In the West, five inches or more of precipitation fell along the California coast, across much of northern California, and in southwestern coastal Oregon, with 2 inches or more inland to the Sierra Nevada, Oregon Cascade mountain range, and over southwestern coastal Washington. Half an inch to an inch of precipitation fell across southern parts of the Pacific Northwest inland to the Rockies and a few areas to the north, with up to 2 inches falling from the Great Salt Lake area to Yellowstone National Park. Another area of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation occurred over the Colorado Rockies into adjacent Wyoming. Parts of California have received over 10 inches of precipitation during February and the Sierra Nevada range has received 1 to 3 feet of new snow since the end of January. But even with a wet February, much of the Sierra Nevada still has a below-normal snowpack. As of February 16, the northern Sierra snow water content (SWE) was 83% of normal, the central Sierra SWE was 74% of normal, and the southern Sierra SWE was 72% of normal. So, the D0 along the California-Nevada border was left unchanged.
While this week was dry across New Mexico, precipitation from the last 2 weeks to 3 months prompted the elimination of the D4 in southwestern New Mexico and the northwest D2, and contraction of the D3 in north central and D2 in southwestern parts of the state.
In northern parts of the West, precipitation for the water year to date (October 1, 2023-February 18, 2024) has been largely below normal and the winter snowpack is significantly below normal. Parts of the northern Rockies have record low SWE values, according to SNOTEL data. D0 expanded in parts of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington; spots of severe drought (D2) were added in north central and northeast Wyoming; and D2 was expanded and new D3 added in parts of Montana, especially the western and southern mountains, where the last 3 to 4 months have been dry and SWE values are record low.
Looking ahead, in the two days since the Tuesday valid time of this USDM, Pacific moisture continued to move across parts of the West, with little precipitation falling east of the Rockies. For February 22-27, one weather system will move across the eastern CONUS, while another moves into the West by the end of the period. The first is forecast to drop 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians northward to the southern Great Lakes and central Appalachians, with half of an inch or less over the Northeast and even less over the Southeast. The second is expected to bring an inch or more of precipitation to the central and northern Rockies, coastal ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and Sierra Nevada, with up to 3 or 4 inches in the Washington Cascades. Other areas of the West are forecast to receive less than half an inch of precipitation, with little to no precipitation over the Southwest and to the lee of the Cascades in Washington. For the Great Plains to Mississippi Valley, little to no precipitation is predicted. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal, with the warmest anomalies across the Plains and Mississippi Valley due to upper-level ridging.
For much of the next 2 weeks, the atmospheric circulation is expected to consist of an upper-level trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the eastern two-thirds of the country, with Pacific weather systems migrating through the trough/ridge pattern. The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) 6-10 Day Outlook (valid February 27-March 2) and 8-14 Day Outlook (valid February 29-March 6) favor a fairly stable pattern of warmer-than-normal temperatures from the Plains to East Coast and cooler-than-normal temperatures over the West and Alaska. The outlook is for above-normal precipitation over much of the CONUS, especially along the West Coast and Great Lakes, with odds favoring near to below-normal precipitation across the Plains and over most of Alaska.
To view the 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook Map, click here.
To view the 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook Map, click here.
To view the Monthly Drought Outlook Map, click here.
