Statewide Discussion: High to very-high fire danger indices will develop this afternoon over much of the state holding continued concern in the northwestern/western counties while also expanding into the north-central counties across the southern Flint Hills. Accelerated drying yesterday and today will set the stage for another round of Red Flag Warnings and significant fire potential in western and northwestern Oklahoma tomorrow.
Today: Moderate to marginal overnight moisture recovery across most of northern Oklahoma from the Panhandle into
northeastern Oklahoma will facilitate an early start to active burning conditions. A weak surface front will sink into the eastern Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma with a subtle shift in wind direction. Further east across northern Oklahoma, windspeeds remain elevated supporting more active fire behavior potential than in recent days. As that weak front retreats back north, winds will relax into the overnight hours; however marginal to poor overnight moisture recovery is anticipated in the Panhandle and northwestern counties setting the stage for increased fire danger concern on Wednesday.
• Northwest/Oklahoma Panhandle: Moderate to marginal overnight moisture recovery will prompt an early start to the
burning period as very dry air moves into the area. A weak front will push into the area with southerly winds shifting from
southerly to west-northwest. While no Red Flag Warning is in effect for the area, critical fire weather over the known
problematic fuels may likely develop locally. Temperature 72°-78° under mostly-clear skies and afternoon relative humidity values 10-19% will yield very receptive fuels with 1hr. fuel moisture values at 3% across the area. Winds in the Panhandle and far northwestern counties will gradually become west to northwest relaxing a bit as a weak front sinks into the area while stronger southwest winds will continue through the day just ahead of the front. Winds sustained 11-19 mph with higher gusts on the leading edge of the front. Rangeland fuels will exhibit head fire rates of spread 134-202 ft/min with flame lengths 12-15 ft. Windspeeds relax after sunset although an extended burning period will be supported by marginal overnight moisture recovery.
• Northern Oklahoma: An uptick in fire behavior potential should be anticipated today with fuels drying following earlier
late-week rains. Temperatures will register in the upper-70°’s to around 80° this afternoon under mostly clear skies with
relative humidity values 26-36% will yield fine-dead fuel moisture values 6% broadly with locally 5% observations.
Southwest winds sustained 14-20 mph with some gusts to 27 mph will support rapid rates of spread in decadent, warmseason grasses. Head fire rates of spread in the dormant, tall grasses will be 145-212 ft/min with flame lengths around 16 ft. Timber fuels will exhibit much less expressive fire behavior with ROS +/-20 ft/min with FL 3-5 ft.
• South-Central/Southeastern Oklahoma: Notable cool-season green up has offered numerous breaks in the dormant
fuelscape although those areas dominated by warm-season grasses, and also timber-litter, remain fully viable.
Temperatures in the mid-70°’s with relative humidity values generally around d 40% will hold fine-dead fuel moisture
values at 7-8%. Southwest winds sustained 10-16 mph with some higher gusts are forecasted. Although ignition
component will be limited, fires that do become established will exhibit head fire rates of spread at +/- 90 ft/min in grass
dominated fuels while timber fuels will exhibit ROS 15 ft/min with FL 3.5 ft. offering very good probability od initial attack
success.
Near-Term: An active weather period lies ahead for Oklahoma. Tomorrow will bring the return of significant fire potential across western Oklahoma and areas of northern Oklahoma. The highest concern will again be focused on the northwestern counties while a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for tomorrow. The known combination of dryline
intrusion and approaching cold front will present critical fire weather over readily receptive fuels. Peering a bit further into the future, wetting rains later this week appear likely south and east of I-44 while little opportunity for improvement lies in the current forecast period for the parched northwestern counties although overall fire weather
does relax a bit.
OFS Resources Mobilized: Resource Hotline (800) 800-2481
• Beckham County – Suppression Group (DIVS/Engines/Dozers) Available
• Woodward County – Suppression Group (DIVS/Engines/Dozers) Available
• 2 CL415’s – Burns Flat
Burn Bans: (None currently in effect) Click HERE for the most current burn ban information.
