Farm Director KC Sheperd recently spoke with State Climatologist Gary McManus about the recent dramatic weather shifts in Oklahoma, from record-breaking rainfall to the looming summer heat. McManus provided an insightful look at the state’s current conditions and what Oklahomans can expect in the coming months.
“Well, it’s certainly been quiet recently, for the last ten days or so. It seems very odd not to have floods going on just about every day, since that’s what we’ve had throughout much of April and the first part of May, but it’s really quieted down,” McManus began, highlighting the stark contrast to the preceding wet period.
He noted that Oklahoma experienced its wettest April on record with 8.74 inches of rainfall, according to the Oklahoma Mesonet, and recorded 39 tornadoes in March and April. This deluge has significantly alleviated drought conditions. “We did get rid of most of the drought in the state. We only have 14% of the state in drought, and that’s all up in northwest Oklahoma. I do think when the new Drought Monitor comes out on Thursday, that we will have even less.”
Reflecting on the sudden shift from drought concerns, McManus explained the weather patterns that led to the heavy rainfall. “I think what really triggered it was the two slow-moving upper-level storm systems that set out to the West and just kicked out smaller storm systems and made wave after wave of rainfall. So we see that occasionally, but usually we don’t get multiple rounds of that.” He also pointed out the historical context, noting that Oklahoma experienced its wettest November on record just a few months prior. “So you just never know what we’ll have with Oklahoma weather.”
Looking ahead, McManus addressed concerns about how long the soil moisture would last before drought could return. “It doesn’t take long when you get into the warm season, especially when you get into June and July. We’re not in any danger of drought coming back very quickly right now, even though we’re going to see upper 90s midweek this week in some areas.”
He explained that Oklahoma’s rainiest period typically extends from mid-April to mid-June, sometimes even into July, providing a buffer against immediate drought resurgence. However, he cautioned that flash droughts have occurred in recent summers, emphasizing that it’s always a possibility.
The heavy rains have had a significant impact on the state’s lakes. “When we’re looking at, especially across parts of northeastern and central Oklahoma, we have lakes that are eight to 10 feet above normal,” McManus reported. While a few lakes in the southwest remain below normal, the majority have filled up, along with farm ponds, leaving the state in a relatively good position regarding water resources, with the exception of the Panhandle and far northwest Oklahoma.
Forecasting the summer, McManus emphasized the crucial role of soil moisture in regulating temperatures. “There’s no telling about this summer. All we can say when we start to look at summer predictions in Oklahoma is the longer we can keep that soil moisture up, we can kick down the heat.”
He explained the cooling effect of evaporation from moist soil. However, he also noted the potential for increased heat index with high humidity. Ultimately, McManus concluded, “Nothing is showing up right now about where we should be going. Whatever comes is going to come, regardless of what we predict.”
In a lighthearted closing, McManus quipped, “It’s very strange for somebody to want to talk to me when things are going good, so knock on wood, we’re liable to have a gigantic tornado outbreak next week because we jinxed it. Let’s just hope that things are going well, and we just get some really good rains. Then, in a week or so, we won’t have to worry about anything bad for a while.”
