Oklahoma is set for a major weather shift this week, as State Climatologist Gary McManus heralds the true arrival of “real fall” after a prolonged period of dry, summer-like conditions. A significant storm system is expected to disrupt the recent pleasant weather pattern, bringing much-needed rainfall and a dramatic temperature drop.
End of the “Glorious” Dry Spell ☀️
McManus notes that Oklahomans have been enjoying a “glorious stretch of fall weather,” characterized by warm afternoons and comfortable mornings. However, that pattern is quickly ending.
- “Enjoy the next two days of light-jacket weather in the mornings and shorts in the afternoons,” McManus advised, “Because after that, real fall looks to intrude, and with it comes some decent chances for rain.”
Critical Moisture on the Way 🌧️
The primary focus of the week is a substantial storm system expected to arrive late Tuesday and persist through Wednesday and Thursday. This rainfall is viewed as crucial, particularly given the recent expansion of abnormally dry conditions and drought across the state.
- Agricultural Relief: The incoming moisture is vital for the state’s agricultural sector. McManus stresses, “We need the moisture to stave off flash drought and to get the winter wheat crop up and going. This is a critical time for the wheat.”
- Rainfall Forecasts: While the heaviest rain is forecasted for the southeastern parts of the state (with totals potentially reaching 2–3 inches), the outlook is promising for nearly all regions. McManus stated, “Most of the state looks to get at least a half-inch to an inch, which would be fantastic,” underscoring the importance of every drop in combating the expanding dryness.
Drought Battle and Storm Risk ⛈️
The arrival of the storm system marks a “monumental battle” for the state’s soil moisture. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map showed that drought had increased yet again, making the current forecast rain critically important to overcome large precipitation deficits.
The system’s arrival will also bring a risk of severe weather. The main threats are hail and high winds, though the tornado threat is considered low.
A Return to Seasonable Temperatures 🍂
Following the system’s passage, Oklahomans will experience a noticeable drop in temperatures, finally bringing conditions more typical of late October.
- Temperature Shift: “The good news is that after the rain comes the ‘real’ fall weather,” McManus explained. “We’ll go from the 80s to the 60s for highs, which is right where we should be for this time of year.”
While the long-range outlook remains uncertain, the immediate forecast brings a welcome change, promising vital moisture and a shift to seasonable temperatures to recharge the drying landscape.
To read more from Gary McManus on his Mesonet ticker, click here:
