State Climatologist Warns of “Bigtime Arctic Snap”: Coldest Air Since 2024 Headed for Oklahoma: If you have been enjoying the unseasonably warm weather of December and early January, State Climatologist Gary McManus has some bad news: the vacation is ending. A major arctic system is currently barreling toward the Southern Plains, threatening to bring the coldest air the region has seen since early last year.
While the “Bigtime Arctic Snap” (which McManus jokingly notes was also his 9th-grade band name) might sound entertaining, the reality is likely to be anything but. After weeks of mild temperatures, Oklahomans are facing a harsh return to reality this coming weekend.
“Baby-Winter” vs. The Real Deal
Current conditions might feel chilly to some, but McManus warns that what we are experiencing right now is merely “baby-winter.” The system arriving this weekend is expected to deliver a punishing blow, potentially rivaling the deep freezes of recent history.
To put the incoming cold into perspective, McManus points to historical data:
- February 19 Record: The statewide average temperature on this date in the past has dropped as low as 9.6°F (the 33rd coldest day on record since 1920).
- The 2021 Freeze: That pales in comparison to the historic cold of February 15–16, 2021, which saw statewide averages of -0.2°F and -0.6°F.
- Recent Benchmarks: More recently, January 14–15, 2024, saw averages of 7.4°F and 8.8°F.
The upcoming system has the potential to drag temperatures down to levels not seen since last January, or perhaps even February 20th of last year.
The “Chaos” of Forecasting
While confidence is high that it will get cold, the specifics of how cold and how much snow will fall remain uncertain. McManus highlights a critical issue with current forecast models: the storm system is currently over the Pacific Ocean.
“It is not well-sampled by instruments,” McManus explains. “That data is getting fed into computer forecast models and projected forward.”
Because the initial data is sparse, any small errors or “uncertainty” in the current picture get magnified as the models project into the future. This creates a “chaos” scenario where forecast details can shift rapidly as the system moves over land and better data becomes available.
The Snow & Ice Factor
Forecasting frozen precipitation adds another layer of complexity. It isn’t just about surface temperatures; the models must accurately predict temperatures through the entire depth of the atmosphere. A warm layer of air thousands of feet up can turn potential snow into sleet or freezing rain, significantly altering the impact on the ground.
Critical Caveats and Timeline
As of Tuesday morning, McManus offers two major caveats that residents need to keep in mind:
- The Snow is Iffy: The exact track, amounts, and impacts of potential snowfall are still fluctuating in the models.
- The Cold is Real: There is far less uncertainty regarding temperatures. Bitter, potentially life-threatening arctic air is highly likely.
What You Should Do Now
Oklahomans have roughly 72 hours (from Tuesday morning) before the main impacts arrive. This window is critical for preparation.
- Winterize your home: Check pipe insulation and draft protection.
- Stock up: Ensure you have enough food, water, and medication to last through a period of hazardous travel.
- Protect vulnerable populations: Check on elderly neighbors and ensure pets have warm shelter.
For those living near the Red River or planning travel to Dallas, the outlook is particularly grim. As McManus puts it, “I’ll take the snow”—implying that the alternative (ice or just bitter, dry cold) is far less welcome.
Stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most up-to-date graphics and warnings as the weekend approaches.
To read more from Gary McManus on his mesonet ticker, click here:
