Statewide Discussion: A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for tomorrow, spanning much of western Oklahoma. Within this Watch Area, the highest concern will reside in the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern counties, where composite fuel moisture continues to support potential for large fire activity (<300 Acres) while significant fire potential (>5,000 Acres) remains low.
There is potential for problematic fire occurrence today, as well as some high-based storms may develop in northwestern Oklahoma with some lightning potential and minimal chances of wetting rain outside of individual storm cells. As is often the case, fire danger will increase ahead of a more powerful storm system that will likely provide wetting rains to most areas, further propelling green-up and reducing wildfire concerns. Nonetheless, fire danger relaxes substantially this weekend.
- Today: A noticeable warming trend initiates today, although higher dewpoint temperatures over the bulk of the state will hold afternoon relative humidity values well above the critical threshold, limiting fine-dead fuel moisture from becoming overly receptive. The highest fire danger concern today will develop in the Panhandle and far northwestern counties. There are low thunderstorm chances this evening from the eastern Panhandle across northwestern Oklahoma that offer little opportunity for wetting rainfall. Lightning ignitions in this area are possible. Any fires occurring in the vicinity of a developing thunderstorm will be subjected to erratic winds, potential for rapidly changing spread direction, and problematic fire behavior. Overnight moisture recovery will be variable across the area, and windpseeds remain elevated through the overnight, supporting an uptick in large fire potential resulting from new wildfire occurrence today.
- Special Note to Firefighters: Thunderstorms that pass in the vicinity of an active fire have the potential to produce strong, gusty outflow winds that often result in erratic fire behavior. Firefighters should monitor fire environment conditions for the build-up of cumulus clouds, changes in wind speed and direction, and changes in fire behavior. Thunderstorms will produce outflow winds that generally intensify as a storm matures and will change the direction
of fire movement as they pass. A storm passing directly over a fire may very likely prompt an increase in flame length and rate of spread in all directions.- Communicate changes in fire weather and behavior.
- Ensure that Escape Routes and Safety Zones are
- Clearly identified.
- Reinforce the anchor point and established control lines ahead of the storm arrival to diminish the potential of a blow-up.
- Special Note to Firefighters: Thunderstorms that pass in the vicinity of an active fire have the potential to produce strong, gusty outflow winds that often result in erratic fire behavior. Firefighters should monitor fire environment conditions for the build-up of cumulus clouds, changes in wind speed and direction, and changes in fire behavior. Thunderstorms will produce outflow winds that generally intensify as a storm matures and will change the direction
Northwest Oklahoma / Oklahoma Panhandle: Temperature will warm into the 84°-91° range under mostly clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values 14% (Cimarron County) to 31% further east in northwestern Oklahoma, yielding fine-dead fuel moisture at 3-6%. Southwest winds sustained 16-21 mph with some gusts approaching 30 mph will support potential for moderate to rapid rates of fire spread. Rangeland fuels where grazing or other manipulation has not occurred will support head fire rates of spread 130-200 ft/min and flame lengths 11-14 ft. ROS nearer to 230 may be observed during peak burning conditions and where fuels and topography are aligned with wind direction. Some low thunderstorm chances develop in the afternoon and evening in the eastern Panhandle and across northwestern Oklahoma. Lightning ignitions are possible, and any established fire in the vicinity of a storm cell will potentially exhibit erratic fire behavior.
Western Oklahoma: Temperature in the 80°s this afternoon under mostly-clear skies with relative humidity values 24-38% will hold fine0dead fuel moisture to 6-7% across the area. South-southwest winds sustained 16-21 mph with some gusts around 30 mph will support potential for moderate rates of fire spread over transitional fuels. Rangeland fuels with a fuel bed depth of 2 ft. or greater have the potential to exhibit head fire rates of spread 109-164 ft/min and flame lengths 10-13 ft during max burning conditions today. Still, the potential for some problematic fire behavior, including torching and spotting remains. Good overnight moisture recovery is expected to support a very good probability of successful initial attack efforts.
North-Central/Northeastern Oklahoma: Low thunderstorm chances develop this evening in the northern reaches of the area, bringing some lightning ignition potential into the mix following warm and dry conditions today. This afternoon, temperature 78°-82° under mostly-clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values 31-40% will hold 1-Hr fuel moisture to 6-7%. South-southwest sustained 14-21 mph with some higher gusts will be strongest in north-central Oklahoma. Tall-grass fuels where dormant vegetation dominates will exhibit head fire rates of spread 95-135 ft/min on average, with 10-13 ft flame lengths. Areas where live herbaceous fuels are greater than 50% of the fuel loading will see ROS nearer to 90 ft/min. Given a shortened burning period today, the opportunity for a successful initial attack effort is very good.
South-Central/Southeastern Oklahoma: Green-up conditions have mitigated much of the concern for the area, and new wildfires are not expected to present an undue challenge, supporting successful initial attack. Today, temperature in the upper-70°s to low 80°s under mostly clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values generally >35% will hold fine-dead fuel moisture at 7% or greater. Live-fuel moisture in grass-dominated fuels has significantly hampered fire behavior potential, while timber fuel types continue to support active fire behavior. South winds sustained 8-15 mph with some higher gusts will support low fire spread potential in timber fuels generally less than 35 ft/min and grass fuels less than 90 ft/min.
Outlook: We have reintroduced low potential for significant fire occurrence tomorrow (Thursday) back into the suite of products where the strongest alignment in the fire environment (fuels, weather and topography) will develop. The dryline is forecast to push into Western Oklahoma tomorrow (along and west of a line from Alfalfa to Harmon Counties. With green-up lagging in northwestern Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle, fire weather will support increased new wildfire occurrence potential and elevated large fire potential. Significant fire occurrence probabilities remain low, but merits mention.
Rain chances build Friday and continue through the Easter weekend with optimism for statewide rainfall. Wetting amounts are expected for most of the state ,although we will be paying close attention to the Panhandle and far northwestern counties where lagging moisture has stalled green-up, holding available fuels on the landscape. The 5-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (right) provides perspective on the rainfall expectation through the weekend.
County Burn Bans: Click HERE for current burn ban information
