Farm Broadcaster Carey Martin from the Texas Farm Bureau Radio Network had the chance to visit with the CEO of CattleFax, Randy Blach, at the 2025 Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Convention. Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays is featuring comments from their conversation as they talk about carcass weights and more. Yesterday, they discussed beef market fundamentals and tight numbers in the U.S. beef cow herd.
According to Blach, economics indicate that carcass weights will continue to trend upwards until they begin to moderate some time next year in anticipation of seeing increased supplies of cattle to harvest.
In accordance with seasonal trends, Blach expects fat cattle prices to trend higher over the next few months despite industry uncertainty regarding tariffs and trade wars.
“I would say it is going to be a volatile, volatile time period in here, and even though the seasons really point to higher highs, keep in mind that the market is already priced in the bulk of the upside,” he said. “The futures have already priced in where we thought the market would go to out here in June, so I don’t think we’ll spend much time above the $2.10 to $2.15 area on fed cattle as we go forward here.”
The cash market for yearlings has ranged from $2.85 to $2.90, and Blach feels that $2.90 to $3.00 will be the upper end of the range.
“Those are some pretty lofty break-evens,” he said. “It would be pretty hard to make those cattle work coming out of the feedyards.”
He emphasized the outstanding strength of the calf markets that correlates with the constriction of available calves.
As far as beef demand is concerned, it is at a 37-year high, and the product being put forth for consumers is the best it has ever been. “It has been unbelievable the way that consumers have responded to the quality and consistency of the supply that U.S. producers are putting in front of them, day in and day out. That is a win-win for everybody. It is fantastic that we have these kinds of demand signals that can be translated back through our industry.”
He noted that the robust price discovery signals being received are present in the form of grid and formula marketing, which the vast majority of cattle are on today. This has resulted in a large shift from fifty percent Choice and Prime to eighty-five percent.
“That is why demand has increased the way it has,” he said. “It is really a pretty simple correlation when you look at it. Consumers vote with their pocketbooks, and the U.S. beef industry has gained a nine percent market share of spending. That is a staggering number. Hats off to the industry for giving global consumers what they want, and they have been paid for that.”
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR at the top of the story for today’s show, and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
