Return to Summer: Drought Creeps Back into Oklahoma Amid Unseasonably Warm Weather ☀️

Oklahoma’s brief autumn has been abruptly replaced by summer-like conditions, bringing unseasonably high temperatures and the concerning return of drought. State Climatologist Gary McManus and Farm Director KC Sheperd discussed the deteriorating weather pattern, which is compounded by the official onset of a La Niña episode.

Summer Extends into Mid-October

Oklahoma is experiencing temperatures significantly above normal for mid-October, a reversal from earlier, cooler patterns. McManus expressed frustration with the persistent heat.

“We had fall in the last week of August and the first week of September, and ever since then, we’ve had summer.”

The State Climatologist noted that temperatures are currently “about 10 to 15 degrees above normal” on days reaching the 80s and 90s, when highs should ideally be in the 70s. This heat wave, combined with a severe lack of precipitation, is rapidly drying out the state.

Rainfall Deficit Fuels Drought Resurgence

The most significant factor driving the return of the drought is the lack of moisture. Much of the state has gone without adequate rainfall for over a month.

“If you go from about I-40 up to… close to the Kansas border, we’re going from like 35 to 40-plus days without a quarter inch of rainfall in a single day.”

McManus emphasized that the combination of high temperatures and extended dryness made the return of drought inevitable.

“You just can’t combine those types of temperatures for an extended period of time with that extended period of lack of rainfall and not expect drought to come back.”

Current Drought Status and Near-Term Forecast

The latest data confirm the expansion of the drought. Approximately 12% of the state is now in “moderate drought,” the least severe category. More alarmingly, 40% of the state is in “abnormally dry conditions,” a category that has grown by about 10% in the past week and indicates areas likely to fall into official drought.

While the situation is concerning, McManus noted that it is “certainly not as bad as we’ve seen in the past” few years, thanks in part to residual moisture from record rainfall earlier in the year.

Looking ahead, the forecast offers little hope for immediate relief. For the next “7 to 14 days,” the state is expected to remain on the “dry side” and “warm side,” with no significant, widespread precipitation anticipated.

La Niña: A Long-Term Concern

A change in global weather patterns further complicates the outlook for the cool season. McManus confirmed that Oklahoma is now “officially in a La Niña episode.”

La Niña typically brings “warmer than normal and drier than normal cool season conditions” to the region, lasting from approximately October through February. While the current episode is expected to remain “weak,” it is a troubling development.

“Looking at the last 20, 25 years, when we get La Niñas, we tend to get drought episodes either starting or strengthening.”

Advice for Producers

The challenging conditions put pressure on agricultural producers, particularly those planting wheat. The recent heat was helpful for maturing crops like soybean, peanut, and cotton, but the current lack of rain is critical.

McManus advised producers to draw on their experience from past dry periods to manage the current risk.

“Whatever steps that you would that you’ve learned over the last 20, 25 years through these drought episodes… I would certainly do that and hope for the best and… maybe expect the worst.”