Goodbye Shorts, Hello Rain: State Climatologist Predicts “Real Fall” Arriving Midweek

Forecast for the week of rain

Oklahoma is set for a significant weather shift this week, according to State Climatologist Gary McManus and data from the OCS/Mesonet Ticker. After a prolonged period of summer-like warmth, the state is preparing for the arrival of a major storm system that will usher in much-needed rain and mark the true start of “real fall” temperatures.

The End of a “Glorious” Spell ☀️

McManus notes that Oklahomans have been enjoying what he called a “glorious stretch of fall weather,” characterized by pleasantly warm days and cool mornings. However, that pattern is about to break.

“Enjoy the next two days of light-jacket weather in the mornings and shorts in the afternoons,” McManus advised, “Because after that, real fall looks to intrude, and with it comes some decent chances for rain.”

Critical Moisture on the Way 🌧️

The focus of the week is a significant storm system expected to arrive late Tuesday and persist through Wednesday and Thursday. This rainfall is considered crucial for the state, which has been experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

Mcmanus stresses the agricultural importance of the incoming moisture:

“We need the moisture to stave off flash drought and to get the winter wheat crop up and going. This is a critical time for the wheat.”

While the heaviest rain is forecasted for the southeastern parts of the state, where totals could reach 2–3 inches, the forecast is promising for nearly all regions:

“Most of the state looks to get at least a half-inch to an inch, which would be fantastic,” McManus said, underscoring the importance of every drop in combating the expanding dryness.

Fall Temperatures to Finally Take Hold 🍂

Following the system’s passage, the state will experience a dramatic drop in temperatures, finally bringing conditions more typical of late October.

“The good news is that after the rain comes the ‘real’ fall weather,” McManus explained.We’ll go from the 80s to the 60s for highs, which is right where we should be for this time of year.”

While the extended outlook remains uncertain, with potential for both warmer and cooler patterns later in the season, the immediate focus is on the incoming storm and the vital relief it is expected to bring to Oklahoma’s drying landscape.

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