The USDA released the August WASDE (World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates) and the Crop Production reports. The reports were most positive for corn and soybeans. The WASDE report was slightly negative, price wise, for hard red winter (HRW) wheat.
The initial market reaction to the reports were miniscule, which indicates USDA’s estimates were near the market’s expectations.
Oklahoma’s wheat production was lowered from 70.2 million bushels (Mb) to 68.85 Mb. All HRW wheat production was increased from 577 Mb to 588 Mb, and HRW 2023/24 marketing year ending stocks were increased to 246 Mb from 227 Mb. The five-year averages are 689 Mb for U.S. HRW production and 411 Mb for ending stocks. The increases are expected to have little impact on wheat prices.
World wheat ending stocks were lowered from 9.79 billion bushels (Bb) to 9.76 Bb.
U.S. corn production was estimated to be 15.1 Bb, which was only 209 Mb lower than July’s estimate, and ending stocks declined 0.3%. The changes in world production and ending stocks were also small. No price impact is expected.
The reductions in soybean production and ending stocks were also very small and are not expected to impact prices.
For wheat, the market will continue to watch foreign wheat production and wheat exports out of the Black Sea area.
The market will continue to watch both U.S. and world (mostly Brazil) corn and soybean production. Weather will probably be the biggest price factor for corn and beans.
