Farm Director, KC Sheperd, had the chance to talk with Allendale’s Rich Nelson about this month’s report. Nelson said this report is often quiet, but there will be more action close to the end of the month with the quarterly grain stocks report and prospective plantings report scheduled to come out.
“We did see a mild change for U.S. wheat numbers, in this case recognizing little problems with exports, so about a 15 million bushel increase there,” Nelson said.
Nelson said both Russia as well as European Union wheat prices hit brand new lows again for the long-term down trends. Nelson added that this poses concern from a competition viewpoint.
Regarding hard red winter wheat, Nelson said rains in March and April are the prime determinants of winter wheat yields. In the Southern Plains, Nelson said things are looking good at the moment.
“We do have a little bit of concern about this cold snap, but beyond that, looks like we are going to be okay for the spring,” Nelson said.
Report Findings:
In a report with few major changes, USDA cut Brazil’s soybean production 1 million metric tons but held pat on Brazil’s corn production despite expectations for lower numbers.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Friday by USDA.
Brazil’s production was expected to be a focus. USDA cut Brazilian soybean production by 1 million metric tons (mmt) to 155 mmt, which was toward the high end of pre-report expectations. Argentine production was left unchanged at 50 mmt.
For corn, USDA left Brazil’s production at 124 mmt and held Brazil’s corn exports at 52 mmt.
You can also access the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
WHEAT
U.S. 2023-24 wheat ending stocks were estimated at 673 million bushels in March, up from 658 mb in April.
USDA estimates wheat exports at 710 mb in March, a cut from 725 mb in February.
The average U.S. farmgate price for wheat was pegged at $7.15 in the March report, down from $7.20 in February.
USDA estimates world ending wheat stocks at 258.83 mmt in March, down from 259.44 mmt in February.
USDA estimates world wheat production at 786.70 million metric tons, an increase from 785.74 million metric tons in February.
USDA bumped up wheat production in Australia to 26.0 mmt, from 25.5 mmt last month.
Russian production was estimated at 91.5 mmt, up from 91.0 mmt last month. USDA left Ukraine production unchanged at 23.4 mmt in February.
Wheat exports from Russia were left unchanged from last month at 51.0 mmt. USDA estimated Ukraine exports slightly higher at 16.0 mmt, up from 15.0 mmt last month. Australian wheat exports were bumped up slightly from 19.5 mmt to 20.0 mmt in March
CORN
USDA’s only change in domestic numbers for the 2023-24 corn crop was to lower the average farmgate price 5 cents to $4.75 a bushel.
U.S. production for 2023-24 crop was pegged at 15.342 billion bushels (bb), the same as February.
USDA estimated ending stocks at 2.172 billion bushels.
On the demand side, total 2023-24 Food, Seed and Industrial use is pegged at 6.78 bb. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.375 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.455 billion bushels.
Exports for the corn crop are pegged at 2.1 bb.
Globally, beginning stocks for the 2023-24 new crop were raised 1.37 mmt to 301.62 mmt. 2.57-
Production globally was lowered 2.33 mmt to 1,230.24 mmt. Global exports were raised 1.45 mmt to 202.27 mmt,
Global ending stocks for the 2023-24 crop were lowered 2.43 mmt to 319.63 mmt.
Brazil’s corn production was estimated at 124 mmt and exports were 52 mmt.
Argentina’s production was increased 1 mmt at 56 mmt and export volume was raised 1 mmt to 42 mmt.
Ukraine’s production was lowered 1 mmt to 29.5 mmt but exports were increased 1.5 mmt to 24.5 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA left the U.S. soybean supply and demand balance sheet unchanged from February.
Beginning stocks, which reflect the 2023-23 ending stocks, were held at 264 million bushels (mb). Overall production, at 4.165 billion bushels, for 2023-24 was unchanged.
Total use was estimated at 4.144 billion bushels, with 2.3 billion bushels serving crush demand and 1.72 billion bushels feeding the export market. The national average farm gate price was left unchanged at $12.65 per bushel.
Globally, ending stocks estimates declined by 1.76 mmt to 114.27 mmt. USDA lowered beginning stocks 1.4 mmt due to historical crush and import revisions to China. It also increased historical crush estimates for China going back to the 2020-21 season. China’s soybean imports for 2022-23 was also revised 3 mmt higher to 105 mmt.
USDA trimmed Brazilian soybean production by 1 mmt to 155 mmt, which was toward the high end of pre-report expectations. Argentine production was left unchanged at 50 mmt.
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