U.S. beef exports faced a sharp headline decline late last year, but Dan Halstrom with the U.S. Meat Export Federation says the underlying story is far more encouraging once China is removed from the equation. November beef export numbers were down “about 18, 19%,” but Halstrom emphasized that “if you take out China, it’s really only 3% down,” as he explained while talking with Senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays. He pointed directly to ongoing access issues, noting, “The vast majority of our beef plants are still delisted,” making China “the number one focus point with USTR and USDA.”
Outside of China, Halstrom described global demand as not just steady, but exceptional. “I’ve been using the word resilient,” he said, adding that demand is “even record breaking in places like Central America.” South Korea also continues to deliver strong performance, with exports up “3 or 4% year to date,” which Halstrom reminded listeners is significant when “you’re talking about a $2.5 billion market.” His takeaway: “It’s not all bad news.”
One of the most important developments, according to Halstrom, is a major shift in buyer behavior in emerging markets. In Central America, he said buyers who once focused on lower-end beef have evolved. “Five, six, years ago… they were buying select and no roll. Well, they’re maturing,” Halstrom explained. Today, those customers are “recognizing our quality, and they’re demanding choice and higher, in some cases upper two thirds and prime—and willing to pay for that.” He called this shift “the biggest takeaway this year.”
That global demand, combined with strong domestic consumption, is helping support higher beef values. Halstrom pointed to last summer’s peak in the Choice cutout and explained why it matters. “You need domestic and international markets complementing each other, and that forces a cutout higher,” he said. “That allows more money in the supply chain for the cattle,” reinforcing the importance of exports to producer profitability.
Halstrom also highlighted progress in several smaller but high-potential markets. Indonesia, once hampered by permit and halal certification issues, is now gaining momentum after a framework agreement helped simplify trade. “If you got rid of all the non-tariff trade monkey business that goes on, it’s a $200 million market potentially,” he said, compared to the current “10 or 15 a year.” The United Arab Emirates has also rebounded after halal certification was reinstated, and the UK is finally seeing quota access begin to flow, with Halstrom estimating “$150 million a year, potentially,” if trade barriers are resolved.
Variety meats remain another critical export driver, especially in markets like Japan, Mexico, Peru, and Egypt. “That business all continues and is expanding,” Halstrom said, pointing to products like tongues, tripe, hearts, and livers as “center of the plate” items overseas. He contrasted low-cost beef livers feeding Egypt’s street food sector with high-end demand at luxury hotels, where buyers want “sirloins… ribeyes and strip loins,” and increasingly, “a lot of times with prime.” Halstrom concluded that China’s absence remains a major value loss, saying, “It’s not a volume problem. It’s strictly a value problem,” because when China is in the market, “it’s like the halo effect—it raises all boats.”
Coverage of CattleCon26 is powered by Farm Data Services of Stillwater, Oklahoma.
