Oklahoma Drought Intensifies
For Oklahoma State Climatologist Gary McManus, chronicling the state’s weather is an exercise in tracking extremes. After a winter defined by record-breaking warmth and a persistent lack of rainfall, the state is looking toward a projected weekend storm system not just as a forecast change, but as a necessary reprieve from a deteriorating situation.
“December was just blah, in a record dry and near-record warm kind of way,” McManus noted. After months of stagnation, he describes the incoming weather as a much-needed break in a “long, dry winter.”
The “Spring Predictability Barrier” and ENSO Trends
The primary driver behind Oklahoma’s parched landscape remains La Niña. Under the current ENSO Alert System Status, the state remains under a La Niña Advisory, a phenomenon that traditionally funnels warmer, drier air into the Southern Plains during the cool season.
While the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) suggests a transition to “ENSO-neutral” conditions this summer—and potentially a wetter El Niño by autumn—McManus urges caution. He points to the “spring predictability barrier,” a seasonal period where atmospheric models struggle with long-term accuracy.
“There’s still the ‘spring predictability barrier’ to break through before much confidence is placed in the fall predictions,” McManus explained. “Don’t be shocked if in a few months… La Niña starts to take over that bar graph again.”
The distinction is vital: while a strong El Niño can bring increased moisture, a weak one can often leave the state just as dry, and its effects are largely irrelevant during the summer months when the jet stream retreats.
A Rapidly Intensifying Drought
The data provided by the latest U.S. Drought Monitor paints a grim picture of the state’s agricultural and hydrological health. Drought conditions have intensified or expanded in nine of the last ten weeks, creating a cumulative deficit that is difficult to erase.
Oklahoma Drought Profile:
| Severity Category | Percentage of State | Impact Level |
| Moderate (D1) or Worse | 74% | Widespread agricultural stress |
| Severe to Extreme (D2-D3) | 28% | Significant water shortages and fire risk |
| Abnormally Dry (D0) | 21% | Areas on the verge of entering drought |
With nearly three-quarters of the state currently in a confirmed drought, the margin for error is thinning. “Another 21% of the state is in abnormally dry conditions, signifying areas in danger of going into drought soon if adequate moisture isn’t received,” McManus warned.
Looking Ahead
While the weekend’s projected storm offers a temporary reprieve, the long-term outlook remains tethered to shifting Pacific temperatures. For now, the state remains caught between the remnants of a dry La Niña and the uncertain promise of a more favorable autumn.
The “excitement” of a single storm system is a welcome change, but for Oklahoma’s producers and water managers, the focus remains firmly on the “brawn” required to weather a prolonged period of environmental stress.
To read more from State Climatologist Gary McManus, click here:
