The 2026 Grain Market Outlook: Grain markets experienced a volatile week as a combination of weather forecasts and shifting federal policies influenced prices across several commodities, according to OSU crop marketing specialist Dr. Todd Hubbs. In a recent conversation with farm director KC Sheperd, Dr. Hubbs noted that despite a strong rally in the previous week, much of those gains have been surrendered.
Market Volatility and Federal Uncertainty
A significant factor in the recent market fluctuations has been the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which has introduced a new layer of uncertainty for traders.
“It just adds a bunch more uncertainty to that front that I don’t see going away anytime soon,” Dr. Hubbs said regarding the legal developments.
While domestic policy remains a concern, the primary driver for wheat prices currently appears to be the weather. Despite persistent dry conditions in the southern plains and parts of the “biscuit belt” in Illinois, upcoming weather models suggest a chance for significant moisture.
“I’ve been watching the weather model runs and in the next couple of weeks, there’s a chance we might get some a decent amount of moisture,” Dr. Hubbs observed.
Commodity Specifics: Corn, Soybeans, and Biofuels
The outlook for different crops remains mixed based on production levels and export demand:
Corn: Despite the market shifts, corn exports remain steady. “We’re still shipping corn at a good rate… we still have a lot of it because we had a monster crop,” Dr. Hubbs reported.
Soybeans: The soybean market is being heavily influenced by the “crush impact,” as soybean oil prices have rallied near 60 cents a pound. This is largely driven by the Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) from the Renewable Fuel Standard and current biofuel policies.
Biofuels: Proposed standards for RVOs are seeing a shift from “rin gallons” to physical gallons, which could lead to a significant expansion in the industry. Dr. Hubbs noted that if these policies are finalized, there will be “really strong demand for feedstock domestically to make biodiesel.”
Strategic Advice for Producers
For Oklahoma wheat producers, the current market presents a difficult decision. While the dry conditions might tempt some to hold out for higher prices, Dr. Hubbs pointed out that recent rallies brought the July contract for hard red winter wheat near $6.00, a level not seen since last summer.
“If you see prices—we got up near $6 on the July contract for hard red winter wheat over this last rally—we haven’t been anywhere close to that level since last summer,” he stated.
Dr. Hubbs advised producers to monitor weekly export sales data closely, as it remains the most reliable indicator of whether international demand is meeting current USDA forecasts. While he remains optimistic about hitting export targets for wheat and corn, he cautioned that soybean targets may be more difficult to reach due to high domestic prices and strong competition from a “huge crop” in Brazil.
