Moving into May, drought conditions take on a new urgency. Pasture and hay production in the next few weeks will determine cattle production potential for much of the year. The latest Drought Monitor (Figure 1) shows that drought is widespread across much of the country. The Drought Severity Coverage Index (DSCI) is calculated from Drought Monitor categories to provide a summary measure of drought. The current DSCI for the continental U.S. is a value of 202, down fractionally from the 204 level of the previous week. The current DSCI is the largest value for the end of April in the history of the Drought Monitor, back to 2000.
Not only has the DSCI never reached a value of 200 at this time of year, the DSCI for the U.S. has only exceeded a level of 200 a total of 26 times in 1,374 weeks since the Drought Monitor began. The DSCI has averaged 108, ranging from 11 to 215 over the last 26+ years. The current values over 200 are more than two standard deviations above average and have occurred less than two percent of the time in the history of the Drought Monitor.
The DSCI provides a measure of drought intensity but does not specifically address drought affecting beef cattle production. In 26 states accounting for 88 percent of the 2026 beef cow inventory, the percentage of drought in each of is applied to the beef cow inventory in each state. The results show that over 79 percent of the beef cow herd in those 26 states are currently impacted by drought. That means that over 70 percent of the total beef cow herd is impacted even without considering drought in any remaining states. It is clear that drought is a significant threat to beef cattle production and potential herd rebuilding in 2026.
Decreased cow culling is an important part of stopping herd liquidation and stabilizing the cow herd. Beef cow herd culling dropped sharply in 2023-2025, reaching a cyclically low level of 8.4 percent in 2025. Thus far in 2026, beef cow slaughter is down over 17 percent year over year, a level that would lead to an annual herd culling rate of roughly 7.0 if it persists for the balance of the year. This would be a record low culling rate and would certainly help stabilize the beef cow herd. However, current drought conditions may cause cow slaughter to increase and lead to additional herd liquidation.
There are indications of the very early stages of heifer retention as well. The January 1 beef replacement heifer inventory was up slightly, by 0.9 percent year over year. This is consistent with the indications in the steer to heifer slaughter ratio in Figure 2. This ratio has peaked in each of the last four herd expansions and typically starts increasing prior to the herd inventory low. The chart shows that the ratio has started to increase and indicates the very early stages of heifer retention. Little or no herd rebuilding is indicated for 2026, but the process may be starting for later. However, continued or accelerated drought in 2026 could interrupt early heifer retention and further delay herd rebuilding.
Derrell Peel discusses the impact of delayed herd expansion on the cattle markets on the U.S. Farm Reports college roadshow visit at Oklahoma State University. https://www.facebook.com/USFarmReport/videos/-how-long-can-the-cattle-market-stay-hotoklahoma-states-derrell-peel-says-hes-ne/954263747500594/
