The latest USDA crop report shows a tough year developing for wheat across the Southern Plains, while hay supplies remain tight and cotton is seeing mixed results in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
For wheat, all three states are dealing with drought stress and freeze damage. Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 47.6 bushels per acre, down 7.3 bushels from last year’s average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 22.0 million acres, down 14 percent from last year.
Hard Red Winter production, at 515 million bushels, is down 36 percent from a year ago. Soft Red Winter, at
301 million bushels is down 15 percent from 2025. White Winter, at 232 million bushels, is down 5 percent from last year. Of the White Winter production, 8.03 million bushels are Hard White and 224 million bushels are Soft White.
- Oklahoma wheat production is projected at 64.4 million bushels, down significantly compared to 106.4 million a year ago but up from the grain and feed association estimate of a week ago.
- Kansas winter wheat production is forecast at 214.6 million bushels, down sharply from 346.8 million last year.
- Texas wheat is expected at 47.6 million bushels, down from 85.1 million last year. Wheat conditions have also struggled, with 44% of Kansas wheat rated poor to very poor, 49% in Oklahoma, and 56% in Texas earlier this month.
Hay supplies are also running lower than normal in parts of the region. As of May 1:
- Kansas hay stocks were estimated at 1.53 million tons
- Oklahoma at 1.65 million tons
- Texas at 2 million tons.
Nationwide hay stocks are down 3% from last year as drought continues to pressure pastures and hay production areas.
Cotton numbers were more mixed.
- Texas remains the nation’s largest cotton producer, with 2025 production estimated at just over 5.2 million bales, up from the previous year.
- Oklahoma cotton production also improved to 665,000 bales
- Kansas cotton production slipped slightly to 155,000 bales. National cotton production overall was down 4% from 2024, with lower yields reported in many areas.
