David Anderson and Josh Maples write in Southern Ag Today: Since hitting $396.53 for the week ending June 23rd the Choice boxed beef cutout value has steadily declined losing over $33 per cwt to $362.81 by the first of August. But, over the last week the Choice weekly average cutout value gained almost $4 per cwt. It looks like the cutout has turned the corner and is poised for some gains.
This slump in the cutout value, as a proxy for the wholesale value of Choice beef, mirrors the decline in the fed cattle market over the same time period. Both lost about 12 percent of their value and both have rebounded over the last week.
Wholesale beef values, as measured by the cutout, often decline this time of the year. From a beef supply standpoint, beef production normally increases during the Summer compared to Spring. On the demand side, we are past the grilling season bump in demand. It’s also the “dog days of Summer,” and its a long time from the Fourth of July to Labor Day to get another holiday demand bump.
Of the 7 primals that make up the cutout value, the rib, loin, round, and brisket have increased pulling the cutout higher. The rib has jumped from $548 to $587 per cwt over the last 2 weeks and is close to its highest value of the year. Chuck, plate, and flank primals have slowed their decline but not quite begun to increase.
This recent decline in the cutout pulled its value below that of a year ago for the first time in calendar year 2026. Last year’s counter-seasonal summer decline in beef production compared to Spring production fueled very high cutout values. Most of the primal cut values have been higher than last year for most of 2026.
It’s likely that the cutout value will continue to increase in coming weeks. Beef production remains below a year ago, although, the weekly declines in beef production compared to last year have gotten smaller in the last couple of months. Tighter beef supplies will bring some more price strength. The rising cutout will lend some support to fed cattle, feeder cattle, and calf prices in coming weeks.
Anderson, David, and Josh Maples. “Choice Cutout Turning the Corner?” Southern Ag Today
