USDA on Friday lowered export demand for corn by 75 million bushels (mb), raising ending stocks in the process. They also dropped corn export demand to 2.075 billion bushels (bb), down 75 mb from November. That raised ending stocks to 1.257 bb. USDA released the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for December and beyond the move with corn exports, there were few changes in domestic numbers
Farm Director, KC Sheperd spoke with Rich Nelson at Allendale and he said World Wheat ending stocks were slightly lowered, “267.8 million tonnes last month to 267. There were a few changes for competitors. Australia’s crop was raised 2.1 mt to now 36.6, in line with the Australian government’s forecast. Argentina saw a production decline of 3 mt to now 12.5 and Canada was lowered 1.2 to now 33.8. Though Ukraine’s production was not lowered today their exports were raised by 1.5 from last month”
Nelson said looking ahead we should see some ‘rockstar’ reports after the first of the year, “Our discussion on grains is kind of simple. If we do geta 1-3 million acre increase for corn and and trend yields, then certainly you have stocks of 1.7 billion bushels or higher, and a futures price decline down to $4.00 or so.”
Nelso said the big story next year will be what the Livestock numbers show, especially on the beef side, “We mentioned beforehand, beef declines are going to be seen certainly for q2 and beyond. USDA is calling for a 7- 9% Production decline in those quarters. So in terms of trade discussion beef will certainly be the focus here next year.”
Ukraine’s production was lowered at 4.5 mmt to 27 mmt. Yet, USDA raised Ukraine’s exports 2 mmt to 17.5 mmt.
The December monthly USDA report is typically a quieter one for market impact. Production changes are reserved for next month. We are generally only seeing changes for US demand and world updates on this report.
The next monthly report is due January 12. This includes production revisions to the completed 2022 harvest via the Annual Production Summary, implied September – November feed/residual usage via the quarterly Grain Stocks and the first estimate of fall winter wheat acreage via the Winter Wheat Seedings report. These changes, along with new demand adjustments, are rolled into the monthly WASDE report. Of note, though new crop wheat acreage is released on that separate report, USDA will not include any new crop numbers on the WASDE until May.
You can also access the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
WHEAT
USDA estimates U.S. wheat ending stocks at 571 mb, unchanged from November’s estimate. It is still the lowest U.S. ending wheat stocks in 15 years.
U.S. wheat use is estimated at 1.87 bb, also unchanged.
Wheat exports were estimated at 775 mb, unchanged from November. USDA estimates the farmgate price of wheat at $9.10, down 10 cents from last month.
Wheat world ending stocks were estimated at 267.3 mmt, a decrease from 267.8 mmt.
USDA estimates global wheat production at 780.6 mmt, down from 782.7 mmt.
Wheat production in Australia was estimated at 36.6 mmt, an increase from 34.5 mmt.
USDA estimates wheat production in Russia at 91 mmt, unchanged last month. Ukraine wheat production also was unchanged at 20.5 mmt.
Wheat exports from Russia were estimated at 43 mmt, an increase from 42 mmt last month, while USDA estimates Ukraine exports at 12.5 mmt, an increase from 11 mmt in November.
CORN
The export change was the major adjustment for corn numbers.
Production for the 2022-23 corn crop was held at 13.930 bb, a three-year low. USDA also maintained the yield at 172.3 bushels per acre (bpa).
Total supply was held at 15.357 bb with the rise in production.
Feed and Residual also at 5.3 bb. Total domestic use was 12.025 bb.
Ethanol use was also unchanged at 5.275 billion bushels, despite some possibilities that USDA would lower demand there as well.
USDA lowered corn export demand to 2.075 bb, down 75 mb from November.
Total use came in at 14.100 bb. That put ending stocks at 1.257 bb, up 75 mb with the adjustment on export demand.
The farmgate price was pegged at $6.70 per bushel, down 10 cents from November.
Globally, USDA lowered 2022-23 beginning stocks by .59 million metric tons (mmt) to 307.09 mmt. Total production was lowered 6.53 mmt, to 1,161.86 mmt. Global ending stocks for 2022-23 were lowered 2.36 mmt to 298.4 mmt.
Brazil’s production was held firm at 126 mmt for 2022-23. Argentina was held at 55 mmt as well. USDA lowered Russia’s production by 1 mmt to 14 mmt. Ukraine’s production was lowered at 4.5 mmt to 27 mmt. Yet, USDA raised Ukraine’s exports 2 mmt to 17.5 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA made no changes to the soybean supply and demand balance sheet in December.
USDA left soybean production unchanged at 4.346 bb with a national average yield of 50.2 bpa.
On the demand side, 2022-23 crushing were left at 2.245 bb, exports at 2.045, seed use at 102 bb and residual at 22 bb. Ending stocks were left unchanged at 220 mb. That national average farm gate price was $14 per bushel.
Globally, soybean ending stocks for 2022-23 increased 0.5 mmt to 102.71 million metric ton, reflecting slightly higher beginning stocks and production, primarily in India and Ukraine. USDA also sees slightly higher exports.
