Oklahoma Sees 300,000-acre increase in Wheat Plantings on USDA Prospective Plantings Report

Listen to KC visit with Allendale’s Rich Nelson today about the Prospective Plantings and Grain stocks Reports

USDA on Friday released its Prospective Plantings and March 1 Grain Stocks reports. Farm Director, KC Sheperd, visited with Allendale’s Rich Nelson about the two reports.

Two USDA reports today, quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings, give the trade a good deal of both old and new crop information to digest. Grain Stocks issues remaining old crop stocks as of March 1. This report is simply a count of leftover stocks. USDA will incorporate a portion of today’s old crop surprises into the next monthly supply/demand report on 4/11 in the feed/residual category. Prospective Plantings is the survey-based report that officially starts the new crop year. This report only holds intended planted acreage data. There are no estimates for percent harvested, new crop yields or new crop demand. The trade will take these acreage numbers and apply them to USDA’s February AgForum demand estimates for a guide on how a USDA new crop balance sheet would look. USDA reported 72,900 producers were contacted for these two reports.

“We will point out that wheat stocks were found just a little larger expected about 12 million bushels over the trade estimate,” Nelson said. “So, certainly for the grain stocks portion of our reports, this was positive corn and soybean, and slightly negative on the wheat side.”

Regarding the perspective plantings, Nelson said for Oklahoma specifically, there was a very small increase in corn, as most producers in Oklahoma are not jumping on the corn bandwagon. In soybeans, he added, there was a decrease of about 45,000 acres compared to last year.

“The report today suggests 300,000 acres of extra winter wheat planting,” Nelson said. “As we all know, the big question with winter wheat is not about planting- it is what will be harvested as well as yields, which are two very big questions.”

As for Kansas Nelson said Producers were more willing to be a little more eager on the acreage side, “Plus 300,000 for corn minus 400,000 For soybeans, but plus 800,000 versus last year for wheat. So Kansas producers certainly were active with planning this year.”

Texas, Nelson said, is a little different, “Slight decline on corn, in this case also a slight decline on soybeans. They were more active with wheat, plus 1.4. One thing which is different about Texas specifically is as they are major cotton producer, we did see numbers drop a bit more than we expected to see, down 1.5 million acres from last year.”

PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS

Wheat:

2022/23: USDA counted 946 million bushels for old crop stocks as of March 1. That was 12 million over the 934 trade estimate (ALDL 917). The wheat old crop marketing year ends on May 31 so there is limited time to correct this small discrepancy.

2023/24: USDA surprised the trade by reporting 49.855 million acres for all-wheat intended planting. That was even larger than their AgForum estimate of 49.5. The trade was looking for smaller numbers on this report, 48.852 (ALDL 48.706). This is bearish information but we hesitate to suggest the trade will price it in. There remains significant concern over both harvested acres and yields for hard red winter. Total winter wheat plantings were seen at 37.505, over the 36.256 estimate (36.524). Other spring was counted at 10.570 vs. the trade estimate of 10.950 (ALDL 10.607).This represents a net decline from last year of 265,000. Durum was seen at 1.780 vs. 1.666 estimated (ALDL 1.575). The trade has clear concern with spring wheat planting as North Dakota remains a clear problem.

All wheat planted area for 2023 is estimated at 49.85 million acres, up 9% from 2022. The 2023 winter wheat planted area, at 37.51 million acres, is up 13% from last year and up 2% from the previous estimate.

Of this total, about 26.0 million acres are hard red winter, 7.80 million acres are soft red winter and 3.71 million acres are white winter.

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2023 is estimated at 91.99 million acres, up 4% or 3.42 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating states.

Soybean planted area for 2023 is estimated at 87.51 million acres, up slightly from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 15 of the 29 estimating states.

Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2023 is estimated at 10.57 million acres, down 2% from 2022. Of this total, about 9.95 million acres are hard red spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2023 is expected to total 1.78 million acres, up 9% from the previous year.

All cotton planted area for 2023 is estimated at 11.26 million acres, down 18% from last year. Upland area is estimated at 11.1 million acres, down 18% from 2022. American Pima area is estimated at 154,000 acres, down 16% from 2022.

On sorghum, USDA said farmers intend to plant 5.98 million acres this year, a 6% drop from last year.

QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS

All Wheat: Total stocks were reported at 946 mb, the lowest in 15 years but slightly above the pre-report average estimate.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1 came in at 946 mb, down 8% from a year ago. On-farm stocks were estimated at 227 mb, up 30% from last March. Off-farm stocks were reported at 719 mb, down 16% from last year. Total disappearance or usage was list at 366 mb, up 5% from the same quarter in 2022.

Durum wheat stocks reported in all positions on March 1 came in at 35.8 mb, up 18% from last year. On-farm stocks were reported at 17.1 mb, up 36% from March 2022. Off-farm stocks were listed at 18.7 mb, up 6% from a year ago. Total disappearance from December 2022 through February 2023 was 12.3 mb, up 5% from the same quarter last year.

Corn: Total stocks pegged at 7.401 billion bushels (bb), the lowest in nine years.

USDA reported total corn stocks on March 1, 2023, at 7.401 bb, down 5% from the same date a year ago. Of total stocks 4.11 bb were stored on farms, up 1% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were reported at 3.29 bb, down 10% from a year ago. Total disappearance (usage) for the quarter was reported at 3.42 bb, which was December 2022 through February 2023. That compares with 3.88 bb for the same quarter last year

Soybeans: Total stocks reported at 1.69 bb, the lowest in six years and on the lower side of the pre-report estimates.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1 came in at 1.69 bb, down 13% from March 1, 2022. On-farm stocks were reported at 750 million bushels (mb), down slightly from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were pegged at 936 mb, down 21% from a year ago. Total disappearance or usage was reported at 1.34 bb, up 11% % from the same quarter in 2022.

You can always find more Premium Content from Allendale by visiting their website.

Verified by MonsterInsights