On March 28, 2024, USDA Released the Prospective Plantings Report and the Quarterly Grains Stocks Report. Farm Director KC Sheperd had the chance to talk with Allendale’s Rich Nelson about the two reports.
Nelson said there is discussion about low corn acreage, down about 4.6 million acres. Soybeans on the other hand are up 2.9 million acres, he added.
“This does reflect the fact that the current new crop breakeven which some might estimate at about $5.10 per bushel, and that is a cash price, is maybe a bit concerning here for us,” Nelson said.
Given the higher prices, Nelson said it was expected to see a large jump in cotton acres. In this case, Nelson said USDA did not see much of an increase, at only about 400,000 extra acres from last year. Therefore, cotton is starting out the year tighter than the trade expected to see.
“As far as big picture surprises, there are not any major issues here,” Nelson said. “One thing I will point out, though is that (in the Quarterly Grains Stocks Report) we are talking about corn, soybeans and wheat here in this case, so three crops. The total will be down 3.8 from last year. That does fit in relatively normally with what you would expect in a financially stressed year.”
Overall, according to the U.S. Prospective Plantings Report (Grain Stocks to follow):
Corn Planted Acreage Down 5 Percent from 2023
Soybean Acreage Up 3 Percent
All Wheat Acreage Down 4 Percent
All Cotton Acreage Up 4 Percent
Corn planted area for all purposes in 2024 is estimated at 90.0 million acres, down 5 percent or 4.61 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 38 of the 48 estimated States.
Soybean planted area for 2024 is estimated at 86.5 million acres, up 3 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 24 of the 29 estimated States.
All wheat planted area for 2024 is estimated at 47.5 million acres, down 4 percent from 2023 for comparable States. The 2024 winter wheat planted area, at 34.1 million acres, is down 7 percent from last year and down 1 percent from the previous estimate for comparable States. Of this total, about 24.3 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.26 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.59 million acres are White Winter. Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2024 is estimated at 11.3 million acres, up 1 percent from 2023. Of this total, about 10.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2024 is expected to total 2.03 million acres, up 22 percent from the previous year for comparable States.
All cotton planted area for 2024 is estimated at 10.7 million acres, up 4 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 10.5 million acres, up 4 percent from 2023. American Pima area is estimated at 203,000 acres, up 38 percent from 2023.
Oklahoma Prospective Plantings:
Corn planted area for 2024 is estimated at 400,000 acres, up 3 percent or 10,000 acres from last year.
Soybean planted area for 2024 is estimated at 550,000 acres, up 20 percent or 90,000 acres from last year.
Winter wheat planted area for 2024 is estimated at 4,350,000 acres, down 4 percent or 200,000 acres from last year.
Cotton planted area for 2024 is estimated at 500,000 acres, up 19 percent or 60,000 acres from last year.
Finally, one of the biggest losers when it comes to smaller acres expected to be planted in 2024 will be grain sorghum acres in Oklahoma- predicted to be 300,000 acres, down 110,000 acres from 2023.
Kansas Prospective Plantings:
Corn planted area for 2024 is estimated at 5,700,000 acres, down 1 percent or 50,000 acres from last year.
Soybean planted area for 2024 is estimated at 4,250,000 acres, down 4 percent or 180,000 acres from last year.
Winter wheat planted area for 2024 is estimated at 7,700,000 acres, down 5 percent or 400,000 acres from last year.
Cotton planted area for 2024 is estimated at 110,000 acres, down 2 percent or 20,000 acres from last year.
Texas Prospective Plantings:
Corn planted area for 2024 is estimated at 2,100,000 acres, down 16 percent or 400,000 acres from last year.
Soybean planted area for 2024 is estimated at 100,000 acres, down 20 percent or 25,000 acres from last year.
Winter wheat planted area for 2024 is estimated at 5,900,000 acres, down 8 percent or 500,000 acres from last year.
Cotton planted area for 2024 is estimated at 5,540,000 acres, down 1 percent or 39,000 acres from last year.
According to the U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks Report:
Corn Stocks Up 13 Percent from March 2023
Soybean Stocks Up 9 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 16 Percent
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2024 totaled 8.35 billion bushels, up 13 percent from March 1, 2023. Of the total stocks, 5.08 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 24 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.27 billion bushels, are down 1 percent from a year ago. The December 2023 – February 2024 indicated disappearance is 3.82 billion bushels, compared with 3.42 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2024 totaled 1.85 billion bushels, up 9 percent from March 1, 2023. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 933 million bushels, up 24 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 912 million bushels, are down 3 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2023 – February 2024 quarter totaled 1.16 billion bushels, down 13 percent from the same period a year earlier.
All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2024 totaled 1.09 billion bushels, up 16 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 272 million bushels, up 20 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 816 million bushels, are up 14 percent from a year ago. The December 2023 – February 2024 indicated disappearance is 334 million bushels, 10 percent below the same period a year earlier.
