Below is an analysis of the March 28th Prospective Plantings Report written by OSU crop marketing specialist Dr. Kim Anderson:
The USDA released the 2024 Prospective Plantings report. The report appeared to be slightly bullish for corn, soybeans, and soft red winter wheat. The report appeared to be bearish for hard red winter wheat and neutral for cotton.
The market’s immediate reaction to the report was a 17-cent increase in corn prices, essentially no change in soybeans, and a 14-cent increase in hard red winter wheat prices. Cotton prices were marginally higher. The Plantings report provided essential information but the near-term impact will probably be neoglacial.
For wheat, the plantings report must be taken “with a grain of salt.” Using the 10-year average (2014 through 2023), U.S. wheat production is only seven percent of world wheat production. Also, Russia is projected to product a record 3.4 billion bushels in 2024 and Russia’s wheat ending stocks are projected to be 17 percent above the 5-year average.
U.S. hard red winter wheat planted acres was estimated to be 24.3 million acres compared to the 24 million planted acres estimated in the January 2024 report. Oklahoma wheat planted acres were estimated to be 4.35 million acres up from January’s estimate of 4.3 million acres.
U.S. winter wheat planted acres was estimated to be 34.1 million acres compared to the pre-release estimate (survey of market analysts) of 34.9 million aces.
Corn planted acres came in at 90 million acres compared to the pre-release estimate of 91.8 million acres and 2023 plantings of 94.6 million acres. Oklahoma’s corn planted acres was 400,000 acres compared to 390,000 acres in 2023.
U.S. soybean planted acres was estimated to be 86.5 million acres compared to 83.6 million acres in 2023. Oklahoma is expected to plant 550,000 acres compared to 460,000 in 2023.
U.S. cotton planted acres was estimated to be 10.7 million acres compared to 10.2 million acres in 2023. Oklahoma’s planted cotton acres was estimated to be 500,000 acres compared to 420,000 in 2023.
Oklahoma’s canola planted acres was estimated to increase from 3,000 acres in 2023 to 22,000 acres in 2024.
numbers were already factored in current prices. Weather and world production will be the major price determinants between now and harvest.
