Farm Director KC Sheperd is talking with State Climatologist Gary McManus about the resurgence of La Niña and what to expect in the coming months.
While some may believe the state may have received more moisture than it did this time last year, McManus explained that may not be the case.
“Last year, we had really good rain from May through basically mid-July in Oklahoma and we had record rainfall in some cases,” McManus said. “When we look at this year, we have had pretty good moisture in all areas except northwest Oklahoma, so it kind of moves around as we go from season to season and year to year.”
McManus said that now the state has entered ENSO neutral conditions, which basically means the temperatures in the eastern Pacific do not have an impact on weather patterns- so El Niño has faded.
As we move into the July through September period, McManus said La Niña is expected to develop. McManus added that according to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 65 percent chance that La Niña will surface during that period.
While there may not be any noticeable impacts from La Niña later this summer, McManus said it will be more evident in the fall of 2024 through early to mid-spring of 2025. McManus added that La Niña tends to bring warmer than normal temperatures during the cool season and dryer than normal conditions.
“Famously, if you look back through the last 50 years or so when we have these La Niña’s, they tend to be drought starters, “McManus said.
While drought is not guaranteed, McManus urged producers to plan for the increased probability of drier conditions in a few months.
“Every La Niña does not act the same, so this one, even though it brings us an increased chance of drought as we get into the fall, that doesn’t necessarily mean we are going to see drought, but it tilts those odds,” McManus said.
In the next week to ten days, McManus said to expect temperatures in the upper 90s and lower 100s. There is a chance for severe weather today in northwest Oklahoma, he added.
To read more from State Climatologist, Gary McManus on his Daily Ticker, click here:
