At the 2024 Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association’s Convention, Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster, Ron Hays, caught up with Atmospheric Scientist Matt Makens with Makens Weather. Makens talked to Hays about the transition from El Niño to La Niña.
Makens explained that other than normal seasonal conditions such as winter’s chill and summer’s heat, El Niño and La Niña are the biggest global weather drivers. It is important to know which variety it is, how strong it is, and the duration of it.
Makens said that while meteorologists don’t yet have the strength or timeline of the approaching La Niña buttoned down, he sees three options for it.
Regardless, Oklahomans should expect dryer conditions in the second half of 2024. “Do we stay in this neutral pattern that we are seeing now with no El Niño or La Niña? Historically, that has had a drier impact on Oklahoma. If we get into a weak La Niña or even a strong one, that just enhances the drought for Oklahoma,” he explained.
He said that historically speaking, neutral conditions could continue, but it is far more likely that some form of La Niña will form by fall.
Since the late nineties, Makens has observed a shift toward La Niña systems becoming more prevalent than El Niños. “Not just that the frequency of [La Niñas] has increased, but the longevity has, too. We have had some strong events as well. We would like to prevent multiple years, but that has been the pattern,” he said.
In response to the three-year-long La Niña seen in 2023, he said, “We have recovered okay this year with our brief El Niño. I wish it had been more. Deeper soils are not healthy; they didn’t get the water in most cases. We are likely going to dry out pretty rapidly just like we did in 2020-2021.”
The only thing that might put off this shift to drier conditions would be the appearance of a tropical storm. “The tropical flow has helped Mexico, South Texas, and at times, West Texas to Central Texas. We need that kind of tropical flow to move into Oklahoma to delay the onset of a rapid drought,” he said.
However, if that doesn’t happen, he warned that, beyond the next 10 days, conditions would get progressively drier and hotter throughout August.
Looking into next spring, Maken’s current predictions look bleak. “Overall, forage isn’t going to be as successful. Wheat won’t be as good. Our soil moisture will be dried out, and our dugouts will be lower. We need to be thinking about buying hay today to save it for next spring,” he advised.
Whether or not conditions stay neutral or move to La Niña, Makens said that his preparations would be the same. “I’m thinking that I need feed. I won’t have the forages that I just had, and I’m going to have to make some drought plans,” he commented.
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