The latest Drought Monitor Report Shows Surprising Improvements in Some Oklahoma Categories Despite Persistantly Hot Temperatures

To view the latest Oklahoma drought map, CLICK HERE.

According to the latest Oklahoma drought monitor report, exceptional drought and extreme drought remain at zero percent, unchanged from the start of the calendar year.

Severe drought or worse has increased to 10.24 percent, from 8.61 percent last week.

Moderate drought, or worse, has improved slightly to 39.66 percent, from 40.51 percent last week.

Abnormally dry or worse conditions are now at 72.17 percent, down from last week’s 79.41 percent.

According to the 6-to-10-day precipitation outlook map, most of the state is leaning below 33% – 40% chances of precipitation through August 31st.  Most of the Panhandle is near normal chances of precipitation, but the westernmost tip is leaning above a 33% – 40% chance. Northeast Oklahoma is leaning below a 40% – 50% chance of precipitation.

To view the United States Drought Map, CLICK HERE.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, a high-pressure ridge continued across the southern Plains during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (August 14-20), bringing dry and very hot weather, especially to Texas. Pacific weather systems moving in the jet-stream flow brought above-normal precipitation to parts of the West Coast, the northern to central Rockies, and parts of the central to northern Plains, the Midwest, and Northeast. The rain was frequently hit-or-miss, with large parts of the Pacific Northwest to Plains, and Midwest to Northeast, receiving little to no precipitation. In addition, much of the Southwest, and southern Plains to Southeast, were drier than normal this week. An upper-level trough kept the Far West cooler than normal, while a large cold front brought cooler-than-normal temperatures to much of the Midwest to East Coast. The rain contracted drought and abnormal dryness in parts of the Rockies to central Plains, and a few parts of the Midwest and East Coast. But drought or abnormal dryness expanded or intensified in parts of the West that missed out on the precipitation, parts of the Great Plains, from the Tennessee Valley to central Gulf of Mexico coast, and parts of the Midwest to central Appalachians. The lack of rain continued to dry out soils across large parts of the West (especially the Pacific Northwest), in the southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and central Appalachians. Numerous wildfires were burning across the West with some sparking up in the southern Plains and western High Plains. The most severe drought areas included the central Appalachians to Upper Ohio River Valley, the Rio Grande River Valley, eastern Wyoming, western Montana, and central Washington.

In the Southern Plains, the keywords are hot and dry. Most of the region was warmer than normal, with only eastern Tennessee near normal. Parts of northern Texas had weekly temperatures 6 to 10 degrees above normal, with daily high temperatures over 100 degrees F all week and exceeding 110 on some days. Parts of Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma received over 2 inches of rain this week, with locally over 5 inches, and there was a smattering of showers in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee, with rainfall mostly half an inch or less. All of Texas and most of Oklahoma received little to no rain this week. With dry soils, high evaporation, and deficient rainfall, abnormal dryness expanded in parts of most of the South region states. Moderate drought expanded in Texas, especially in north central Texas where the fire danger was high and several large wildfires were burning; extreme drought expanded in the Texas Trans Pecos. Moderate to severe drought expanded in Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought were trimmed where the heaviest rains fell in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Soils were very dry: USDA topsoil/subsoil percentages short or very short include 75%/65% for Texas, 65%/50% for Louisiana, 62%/59% for Mississippi, 53%/49% for Arkansas, 50%/52% for Tennessee, and 47%/49% for Oklahoma. Mississippi experienced a 70% loss of field corn in the east-central portion of the state during the mid-June through early July dry period. Extension agents are reporting a likely significant loss of cotton and soybeans in this region as well. Cotton plants are dying, and soybeans in many locations set pods without beans. According to the USDA Crop progress report for Mississippi, pasture land, soybeans, and cotton are currently worse than 2023 levels. In Tennessee, there were reports of a pond drying up, lack of forage growth (in June and July), and tree stress (early browning and dropping of leaves). The USDA reported 46% of the pasture and rangeland in Texas was in poor to very poor condition.

In The High Plains there were wet areas and dry areas this week. Weekly rainfall totals ranged from zero in parts of Wyoming to locally over 2 inches in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas. Eastern parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska averaged near to cooler than normal for the week, but areas to the west and south were warmer than normal, with some areas 2 to 4 degrees above normal. There was expansion of drought and abnormal dryness in most states in the region, more in the north, and contraction in mostly southern states. The more notable changes were expansion of moderate to severe drought in Kansas and Wyoming with extreme drought being introduced in Wyoming and adjacent South Dakota, and contraction of abnormal dryness and drought in Colorado and Kansas, especially southeast Kansas where locally up to 5 inches of rain fell. Reports of significant hay loss and early cattle sales in South Dakota may be due to a combination of drought and a June 19 freeze event; other drought impacts include surface water shortage and poor water quality for livestock. According to USDA reports, in Wyoming, 75% of the topsoil moisture and 81% of the subsoil moisture are short or very short and 66% of the pasture and rangeland was rated in poor or very poor condition. More than 40% of the topsoil moisture was short or very short in Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas, with 55% of the subsoil moisture so rated in Kansas.

In the West, half an inch of rain or more fell this week along the Washington and Oregon coast, in the Rockies, and parts of the Southwest (Four Corners States), with little to no rain falling across most of California, Nevada, and interior portions of the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures were cooler than normal in the Far West to Great Basin, averaging as low as 4 to 6 degrees below normal, but warmer than normal in southern and eastern areas, averaging 2 to locally 8 degrees above normal in Arizona, New Mexico, and Montana. Contraction of abnormal dryness or drought occurred in a few parts of New Mexico, Utah, and Montana, but drought or abnormal dryness expanded in the Pacific Northwest, California, and Nevada. The most notable changes occurred in Washington and Oregon, where moderate to severe drought expanded. More than 60% of the topsoil/subsoil moisture was rated short or very short in Oregon (81%/75%), Washington (69%/65%), Idaho (65%/62%), Montana (78%/79%), and New Mexico (70%/70%). Almost two-thirds of the pasture and rangeland was rated in poor to very poor condition in Oregon (62%) and Washington (63%).

Looking ahead in the two days since the Tuesday valid time of this USDM, scattered showers and thunderstorms brought areas of rain to parts of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and Plains, but the rest of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) was mostly dry. For August 22-27, the upper-level ridge will slowly shift east, bringing warmer-than-normal temperatures to much of the CONUS between the Plains and Appalachians, while an upper-level trough will move into the West, bringing cooler-than-normal temperatures. An inch or more of rain is predicted for the Cascades, much of the Southwest (Four Corners States), and parts of the northern Rockies and central Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will bring an inch to locally 3 inches or more of rain to the Florida peninsula. Half an inch of precipitation is forecast for areas in the central to northern Plains, Middle to Upper Mississippi Valley, parts of New England, and northern parts of the West. Large parts of California and Nevada, the southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley to Mid-Atlantic coast can expect little to no precipitation.

For much of the next 2 weeks, the ridge and trough pattern will continue to slowly move east. The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) 6-10 Day Outlook (valid August 27-31) and 8-14 Day Outlook (valid August 29-September 4) favor warmer-than-normal temperatures across the CONUS east of the Rockies, shifting to the East Coast as the ridge moves east. Odds favor below-normal temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies at first, then over the northern Plains as the trough moves east. The West Coast and southern tier states are likely to be warmer than normal through the period. Alaska may see cooler-than-normal temperatures in the southwest to warmer-than-normal temperatures in the northeast. Odds favor below-normal precipitation across parts of the Pacific Northwest and a large area centered over the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, while above-normal precipitation is favored from the Southwest to northern Plains and parts of the Gulf Coast states, in the northern Rockies early in the period, and along the extreme East Coast late in the period. Most of Alaska could see wetter-than-normal conditions.

To view the 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook Map, click here.

To view the 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook Map, click here.

To view the Monthly Drought Outlook Map, click here.

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