This week on SUNUP: Dr. Derrell Peel on Why Heifer Retention Could Tighten the Market

Dr. Derrell Peel explains why heifer retention could tighten up the market.

This week on SUNUP, OSU Extension livestock marketing specialist Dr. Derrell Peel explains why heifer retention could tighten up the market.

Dr. Peel says that the cattle market is currently in the expected summer doldrums, there hasn’t been a lot occurring. He mentioned the big stock market shock a few weeks ago that impacted the feeder and live cattle futures and subsequently the cash markets. He said that taking advantage of the summer market lull dropped the cash market slightly. He said that the rebuild out of that will be slow, but it is already in progress.

“Beef production is down somewhat this year, but not as much as we expected it to be, “ Dr. Peel said. “It’s only down about 1.5% so far this year. Almost all of that is due to decreased cow slaughter. On the fed beef side, steer and heifer slaughter is not down all that much, and carcass weights have been exceptionally heavy this year, so fed beef production is actually up on a year over year basis.”

He expects strength in the markets to increase as fall arrives.

“When we see heifer retention, it will add significant strength to the market and we are still waiting to see that as we go forward,” he said.

He added that normally going into fall, calf prices are expected to drop through September to a low in Early October, but he isn’t yet convinced that will happen this year. “These markets are down from that stock market volatility, and I expect those markets to gain a little bit of strength going forward,” he explained. “Several factors will determine how much that happens, one of which is whether or not producers start holding back heifers. If they do, it will tighten up supplies this fall.”

In the central and southern plains, the question is whether or not wheat is planted and the availability of prospects for wheat grazing will affect stocker demand.  “I really expect to see the highest prices of the year in the fourth quarter of the year for calves,” Dr. Peel predicted.

This week on SUNUP:

  • Amanda Silva, OSU Extension small grains specialist, has advice for wheat planting, and she discusses data from her recent variety trials.
  • Wes Lee, OSU Extension Mesonet agricultural coordinator, discusses the recent, welcome cold fronts. State climatologist Gary McManus says drought is expanding.
  • Derrell Peel, OSU Extension livestock marketing specialist, explains why heifer retention could tighten up the market.
  • Dave Lalman, OSU Extension beef cattle specialist, shows the correct way to lock a gate.
  • Mark Johnson, OSU Extension beef cattle breeding specialist, says birdshot or shotgun shell pellets have been reported in the beef supply since the first National Beef Quality Audit in the early 1990s.
  • Finally, Paul Vining, Oklahoma Quality Beef Network coordinator, has updates for the program.
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