The USDA’s #Cattle on Feed report came in within expectations on Friday. The Aug. 1 feedlot inventory totaled 11.1 million head, up 0.1% year-over-year. July placements were 5.8% higher at 1.7 million head. Marketings rose 7.7% to 1.86 million head. Click here for the full report as released by USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service on August 23, 2024.
Oklahoma Farm Report’s Ron Hays talked with Oklahoma State University’s Dr. Derrell Peel after the report and he says that the placement number was slightly higher than the average trade guess- which may cause the trade to view the report as slightly bearish.
Despite the fact that the calf crop continues to shrink- feedlots have been aggressive in filling pens with animals once finished steers and heifers are bought by the packers and shipped- so that on feed number is for all practical purposes- dead even with July of 2023.
Peel tells Hays “the calf crop has been getting smaller for six years and the actual feedlot inventory is not down as much as you might expect based on those numbers so feedlots have done a remarkable job of continuing to find cattle and get those feedlots full.” He adds “they are actually are placing less cattle in the feedlots- you look at placements over time and what they are doing is feeding cattle longer- continue to feed heifers and all of those things have helped them maintain feedlot inventories at a higher level longer than you might expect.”
2024 has continued the trend of feeding cattle longer with the result of carcasses averaging 23 pounds over a year ago. Peel says we were expecting total beef production to be down another four or five percent from a year ago- but the actually pounds of beef produced to this point in 2024 is only down one point three percent. “Fed beef production is actually up about one percent so far this year (finished cattle from the feedlots). The small decrease we do see is all coming from the non fed beef side- the significant reduction in cow slaughter.”
However, even with cow slaughter numbers being up from last year- reading between the lines of this report- Peel sees nothing to change his mind that we will have another slightly smaller US Beef Cow Herd number reported by USDA in January 2025. He says retained heifers are not there in large enough numbers to signal any rebuilding of the herd yet.
Regarding the state breakdown for the latest report- the 11.095 million head is just thirty thousand more cattle in the nation’s feedlots than August first of 2023. Here in the southern plains- numbers are a mixed bag- Oklahoma is actually up 27% on feedlot numbers from last year(the state actual feedlot industry is far smaller than Kansas and Texas) while Kansas is six percent lower than a year ago- the largest drop in inventories of any state. Texas is up one percent from last August. Texas is the number one state by numbers at 2.74 million head- Kansas is third (Behind Nebraska) with 2.2 million head and Oklahoma is the seventh largest state in feedlot numbers in this report with 325, 000 head.
